• U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer reassures lawmakers the U.S. will "do whatever we need" to keep core trade agreements like USMCA in place.
  • The upcoming mandatory six-year review of USMCA is viewed as an opportunity for targeted changes, not a prelude to withdrawal, amid strong trade growth.
  • Stakeholders push for revisions on dairy access, automotive rules of origin, and labor enforcement, while the administration eyes broader trade deals with allies.

In briefings with U.S. senators and representatives, Ambassador Jamieson Greer has signaled firm support for maintaining the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, according to people familiar with the matter. The meetings, focused on the mandatory six-year USMCA review set to begin soon, were described as generally positive, with lawmakers seeing them as an opening for revisions rather than a step toward termination. Greer emphasized in a recent report to Congress that the administration will negotiate "firmly" to address shortcomings, but only recommend renewal if U.S. concerns are resolved, guided by the national interest.

Trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico has surged since USMCA took effect, with U.S. exports of goods and services to the two countries up 56% since 2020, and Mexican wages nearly doubling, partly due to the agreement's labor provisions. However, friction points persist. U.S. dairy producers are demanding better access to the Canadian market, while growers express concerns about Mexican seasonal produce undercutting domestic production. Automotive and manufacturing sectors are pushing for stronger rules of origin, particularly for critical minerals and specialty metals, to bolster North American supply chains.

"What institutional investors like us are really focused on is regulatory stability," a source close to the negotiations said, echoing sentiments from industry stakeholders. Efforts to restructure trade terms have hit a snag in areas like dairy tariff-rate quotas and labor enforcement, but without a deal, the economic stability of key sectors could be at risk. Greer has indicated that the U.S. will keep options open during the review, a stance that aligns with past patterns of hard-line rhetoric coupled with eventual maintenance of core agreements.

In parallel, the administration is pursuing new trade deals with Latin American, Swiss, and Asian allies, part of a broader "Turnberry system" to reinforce U.S.-aligned supply chains and reduce reliance on China. Recent announcements hint at agreements with Brazil and other partners, though bipartisan criticism over tariffs and sector impacts remains. Senators from manufacturing states have voiced concerns that higher input costs from tariffs are hurting U.S. manufacturers, even as they benefit from preferential access under USMCA.

Looking ahead, intense trilateral talks are expected to focus on dairy and agricultural market access, automotive rules of origin, and enforcement of labor and environmental provisions. Congress is likely to push for a formal negotiating mandate, which could constrain the administration's flexibility. If key disputes are resolved, extension of USMCA is the base case, given the strong trade performance and business dependence on the framework. Failure to reach agreements, however, could revive withdrawal threats, potentially disrupting regional supply chains in automotive and agriculture.

Greer's report to Congress underscores that while USMCA improved on NAFTA—which USTR links to an estimated 600,000 U.S. job losses and a $116 billion trade deficit—all major stakeholder groups are asking for further improvements before extension. The administration is preparing a set of priority issues to confront Mexico and Canada, including customs rules, financial services, and critical minerals cooperation. As negotiations gear up, the tone suggests continuity with revisions is more probable than termination, aiming to preserve trade deals while securing targeted changes.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the timeline for the USMCA review; it is set to begin in the coming months, not immediately.