• U.S. and Israeli forces rapidly establish air superiority over Iran following joint strikes launched on February 28, 2026, with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth predicting full control within a week.
  • Operation Epic Fury and Roaring Lion target Iran's nuclear sites, air defenses, and leadership, resulting in over 500 reported casualties in Iran and disrupting global oil markets.
  • The strikes, framed as preemptive by President Trump, bypass Congress and collapse sanctions relief talks, fueling regional instability and domestic debate.

In a bold assertion, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that the United States and Israel would achieve complete control of Iran's skies within under a week, following their joint military strikes initiated on February 28, 2026. This claim aligns with military reports detailing a swift establishment of air superiority through initial cyber operations and targeted strikes on air defenses, command centers, and missile sites, enabling freer aircraft operations over western, central Iran, and Tehran.

U.S. and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, air defenses, naval forces, ballistic missiles, and leadership, including the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. By March 2, they had secured localized air superiority, deploying over 100 aircraft after cyber disruptions effectively "blinded" Iranian responses. Iran retaliated with missile and drone waves, killing over a dozen individuals, including four U.S. service members, though most were intercepted. Casualties in Iran exceed 500, according to local reports, highlighting the operation's intensity.

Global oil markets face disruption as strikes on Iranian facilities risk supply shocks, with potential spikes in energy prices amid depleted regional missile interceptors from prior conflicts. Regional economic strain is evident, with U.S. allies in the Gulf facing base attacks that impact trade, and broader sanctions relief talks have collapsed, worsening Iran's economy. Efforts to stabilize the situation have hit a snag, as diplomatic channels remain strained.

President Trump framed the strikes as preemptive against Iran's nuclear program and for regime change, bypassing Congress in violation of the War Powers Act, per critics. This followed stalled Geneva talks where Iran refused missile concessions. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called the action essential to avert Iran's nuclear "immunity," while international reactions label it illegal aggression amid prior U.S.-Iran negotiations. Implications include heightened U.S.-Israel ties but strained relations with mediators like Oman, according to people familiar with the matter.

Over 500 deaths in Iran fuel regime instability, with Trump urging protests; officials decimated, potentially empowering opposition. Regional and U.S. public reactions include retaliatory strikes that killed civilians and troops, sparking domestic debate on unauthorized war, and global evacuations from Israel and Iran reflect widespread fear. The Arms Control Association condemns the action as an "illegal war of choice," while Netanyahu hails it as a path for Iranian self-determination, adding a human touch to the geopolitical tensions.

This marks the second U.S.-Israel strike on Iran in under a year, after June 2025 clashes where Israel briefly gained air superiority; it follows failed 2026 Geneva talks on uranium limits and inspections, despite Iran's missile red lines. Precedents include 2025 missile exchanges depleting defenses, setting the stage for current escalations. In the short term, sustained air superiority enables precision strikes, proxy degradation, and regime pressure, though Iran may reserve missiles for escalation. Long-term aims focus on nuclear destruction and regime change, but risks wider war or proxy surges; experts predict U.S. naval operations to empower Iranian protests, though a successor regime remains uncertain. The ISW notes ongoing air defense degradation, while the Atlantic Council sees a strategic reshape but warns of nonnegotiable red lines leading to stalemate.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the exact number of U.S. service members killed; it is four, not three.