• A majority of investors expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen by mid-2026, with 44% targeting June 2026.
  • Only 5% of respondents anticipate the strait remaining closed into 2027 or later.
  • The survey suggests easing geopolitical tensions are boosting confidence, but uncertainty over timing persists.

Market Sentiment Points to Summer 2026 Reopening

Bank of America (BAC)'s May global fund manager survey reveals that investors largely foresee the Strait of Hormuz reopening in the coming months, with the strongest concentration of expectations around June 2026. According to the survey, 44% of respondents expect a reopening in June 2026, while 10% anticipate it as early as May 2026. Another 22% see the strait reopening in the third quarter of 2026, and 19% expect a timeline in 2027 or later—including 5% who see no reopening until after 2027.

The findings align with ongoing mediation efforts and recent pacification steps in the region, though the exact timing and conditions of any reopening remain uncertain. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, has been a flashpoint since tensions escalated in early 2026, disrupting tanker traffic and sending shockwaves through energy markets.

Oil Markets and Shipping Costs on Edge

The uncertainty has been a persistent feature of energy market dynamics, influencing oil prices, shipping costs, and route choices. Carriers are weighing risk, insurance, and fuel logistics, with some diverting around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times and bunker costs. A reopening would likely relieve price pressures and improve logistics efficiency in the near term, potentially lowering crude prices and stabilizing shipping insurance markets.

Bank of America itself does not directly operate in energy shipping, but its Global Fund Manager Survey is a bellwether for institutional sentiment on macro risks. The survey captures how fund managers are positioning for geopolitical developments that impact energy supply.

Diplomatic Progress Underscores Confidence

Diplomatic engagement and ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East are central to the near-term outlook. While analysts have cautioned that only a partial or gradual reopening is possible, the survey suggests a broad consensus around mid-2026 as a plausible timeframe. "Investors are pricing in a normalization of traffic through the strait by summer next year," one market participant said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Efforts to reach the Iranian foreign ministry for comment were unsuccessful.

Implications for Energy Stocks and Shipping

If tensions ease further, energy equities and oil services could see a relief rally as the risk premium embedded in crude prices diminishes. Conversely, any setback in negotiations could quickly reverse sentiment, keeping the market on edge. For now, the BofA survey provides a snapshot of cautious optimism, with the bulk of investors betting on a resolution by mid-2026.

*Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage of respondents expecting reopening in Q3 2026. It is 22%, not 19%.