• President Claudia Sheinbaum asserts Mexico is "at peace, is calm" despite recent cartel retaliation following the killing of CJNG leader El Mencho.
  • Mexican Defense Ministry confirms the operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco, with U.S. intelligence support, killing seven CJNG members and seizing armored vehicles and rocket launchers.
  • Sheinbaum highlights a 62% homicide drop in Guanajuato in January 2026 and urges "absolute coordination" with states, as Jalisco faces red alerts and school closures.

President Claudia Sheinbaum's claim that "Mexico is at peace, is calm" contrasts sharply with the wave of violence that erupted after the February 2026 killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias "El Mencho," in a Mexican Special Forces operation. According to people familiar with the matter, U.S. intelligence played a key role in the raid, which the Mexican Defense Ministry said resulted in seven CJNG fatalities and the seizure of heavy weaponry, pending forensic identification of El Mencho. In response, cartel retaliation has included road blockades, burning vehicles, and clashes in Jalisco and neighboring areas, prompting Jalisco to declare a red alert, cancel classes, and deploy Army and National Guard reinforcements.

Sheinbaum, in a recent address, urged calm and emphasized "absolute coordination" with state governments, noting that most daily activities continue normally despite the disruptions. Efforts to stabilize the region have hit a snag, with residents reporting heightened anxiety and economic impacts from the unrest. Without a swift resolution, analysts warn that the security situation could deteriorate further, potentially forcing businesses to scale back operations in affected zones. Sheinbaum's office did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the ongoing security measures.

Amid the turmoil, Sheinbaum pointed to positive trends, citing a 62% drop in homicides in Guanajuato—Mexico's most violent state—in January 2026 compared to the prior year, a statistic she framed as evidence of broader security progress. This comes as Mexico advances a joint economic plan with Canada focused on minerals, infrastructure, and supply chains, with over 370 Canadian business leaders visiting recently, though officials stress this isn't a pivot away from the U.S. Cautious optimism has emerged regarding potential U.S. tariff relief on steel and aluminum, which could bolster trade if negotiations proceed smoothly.

On the diplomatic front, Sheinbaum reaffirmed stability under the USMCA despite ongoing trilateral review and tensions with the U.S., while declining participation in a U.S.-led "Board of Peace" initiative due to Palestine's exclusion, opting instead for U.N. observer status. The operation against El Mencho, who had a DEA reward of $15 million, signals intensified bilateral anti-cartel efforts since the return of U.S. President Trump in 2025, with U.S. officials praising the collaboration as a model for future cooperation. In related developments, Mexico has introduced new film incentives with 30% tax credits, endorsed by figures like Salma Hayek, to boost the industry, and is cracking down on fuel smuggling targeting U.S.-based importers linked to cartels.

Looking ahead, short-term efforts will focus on reinforcing security in Jalisco and neighboring states to curb cartel backlash, with infrastructure projects like the rail link to AIFA airport opening pre-Easter and airport expansions for the 2026 World Cup proceeding. Long-term, if homicide declines like in Guanajuato hold, it could signal a stabilized security environment, bolstered by strengthened Canada ties and economic plans. However, experts caution that cartel fragmentation risks could lead to spikes in violence, requiring sustained coordination. In Mexico City, poor air quality—with only three good days recorded in early 2026—adds to societal challenges, even as Sheinbaum calls for informed calm among citizens.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the timing of the homicide drop in Guanajuato; it occurred in January 2026, not February.