• Argentina has reportedly told the Trump administration it lacks the votes to ratify their bilateral trade agreement.
  • Milei seeks renegotiation after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the tariff authority used to negotiate the deal, but Washington is resisting reopening the text.
  • With Argentina’s legislative year ending in November, the pact faces a tight political timetable that could push ratification into a less predictable session.

Argentina’s proposed bilateral trade agreement with the United States is at risk of stalling before it can be ratified, according to people familiar with the talks cited by Bloomberg. President Javier Milei’s advisers have reportedly told the Trump administration that they lack the necessary votes in Argentina’s Congress, while Buenos Aires seeks better terms after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the administration’s use of emergency powers for broad tariffs. Washington has resisted reopening the text over concerns it could set a precedent for other trade partners.

The agreement was signed in February 2026, but it still requires Argentine congressional ratification. Milei’s team now doubts it can assemble a majority before the legislative calendar effectively closes in November. The impasse reflects both the fragmented Argentine legislature and the political sensitivity of a trade agreement whose terms may now look less favorable after the U.S. tariff decision.

Legal Uncertainty Clouds the Deal

The immediate trigger for the renegotiation request is the Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded presidential authority. That decision removed the legal basis for the IEEPA tariff program, but its aftermath remains operationally complicated. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has been rolling out a phased refund process for affected importers, while some claims remain subject to protests or litigation. This uncertainty changes the relative value of tariff concessions and market-access commitments negotiated under the earlier policy environment.

Argentina argues that the legal and commercial assumptions behind the deal changed when the Supreme Court ruled. The U.S. position, as described in the report, is that reopening the deal could create an undesirable precedent for other trade partners. That leaves the agreement caught between Argentine domestic politics and U.S. reluctance to make concessions.

Economic and Political Stakes

For Argentina, a credible U.S. trade framework could improve market access and investor confidence, especially for export-oriented sectors such as agriculture, food products, energy, mining, and industrial inputs. Delay or failure would weaken a potentially important external anchor for the government’s pro-market program. For the United States, the agreement could support deeper commercial ties with a strategically important South American partner, particularly in sectors where Washington seeks more resilient supply chains and alternatives to concentrated sourcing elsewhere.

The public debate in Argentina is likely to center on whether Milei should accept the original bargain for the sake of geopolitical alignment and predictability, or insist on revised terms now that U.S. tariff policy has been legally constrained. Opponents can argue that Argentina should not lock in an agreement until the revised U.S. policy landscape is clearer.

Milei has pursued close political and economic alignment with Washington, but this episode shows that alignment does not eliminate bargaining conflicts—particularly when domestic ratification and legal changes alter the economics of a deal. The impasse does not necessarily signal a broader rupture, but it underscores the limits of Milei’s legislative power.

Regional Balancing Act

Argentina is balancing several external economic relationships. A recent report said it extended a China currency-swap arrangement through 2031 despite U.S. pressure, illustrating that Buenos Aires is seeking financial flexibility rather than exclusive alignment with any one partner. Separately, Argentina and Uruguay were reported as the first Mercosur countries to ratify the EU-Mercosur arrangement, which began provisional application on May 1, 2026, although the European Parliament’s legal review remains relevant to its longer-term path.

A bill introduced in September would strengthen sanctions related to the Falklands/Malvinas and could authorize broader measures including restrictions on payments, trade controls, and potentially tariffs in specified national-security situations. It has been introduced but is not yet law, demonstrating that trade and economic powers remain politically charged in Argentina.

Outlook

The most probable near-term outcome is intensive but difficult diplomacy rather than prompt ratification. Argentina may seek targeted adjustments, side letters, implementation assurances, or revised tariff-related provisions that allow Milei to argue the agreement reflects the post-ruling environment. The United States may instead prefer interpretive or administrative accommodations that avoid formally reopening the deal.

The key risk is calendar-driven: if no politically saleable solution emerges soon, the November deadline could turn a negotiation problem into a legislative lapse. A delay past that window could push consideration into a less predictable future session.

If ratified, the agreement could strengthen Milei’s reform narrative, improve bilateral commercial predictability, and deepen U.S.–Argentina strategic economic cooperation. If abandoned or deferred, Argentina may lean more heavily on Mercosur, EU-Mercosur implementation, China-linked financing, and sector-specific bilateral arrangements rather than a comprehensive U.S. pact. For U.S. trade policy, the episode underscores how judicial limits on executive tariff powers can ripple beyond customs collections—affecting pending agreements, negotiating leverage, importer compliance, and diplomatic commitments.

Spokespeople for Milei’s office and the U.S. Trade Representative did not immediately respond to requests for comment.