• Argentina has yet to ratify the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment (ARTI), signed on 5 February, amid demands for more certain U.S. tariff relief.
  • The delay risks reopening negotiations or losing political momentum, with Washington pressing Buenos Aires to submit the pact to Congress.
  • Without ratification, the deal's tariff cuts and market-access provisions cannot enter into force, leaving exporters and investors in limbo.

Fragile Prospects

Argentina's trade pact with the United States is hanging in the balance as President Javier Milei's government seeks firmer commitments on tariff relief before spending scarce legislative capital on ratification. The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment (ARTI), signed on 5 February, remains unratified in Buenos Aires, even though officials had targeted completion by 30 April. A senior U.S. trade official recently traveled to Buenos Aires to press for progress, according to people familiar with the matter, underscoring Washington's growing impatience.

The delay is not merely procedural. Argentina is asking for clearer, more dependable relief from U.S. tariffs that still leave many of its goods exposed to an additional reciprocal levy of up to 10 percent on top of normal duties. Separate 50 percent U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum were only slated for review, not automatic removal. Without stronger assurances, Milei's team appears reluctant to push a politically sensitive trade package through a Congress where his legislative agenda already faces stiff resistance.

A Deal in Legal Limbo

The ARTI does not enter into force until both sides complete their legal procedures and exchange written notices. That means the tariff schedules, quotas, and market-access obligations negotiated over months are effectively frozen. For Argentine exporters of agricultural products, minerals, and some industrial goods, the promised benefits remain out of reach. U.S. exporters, meanwhile, cannot yet count on preferential access to Argentina's market, including an 80,000-metric-ton duty-free quota for beef and a 10,000-vehicle quota for eligible U.S. cars.

The agreement includes a built-in renegotiation route: either party may request reasonable modifications, which the other must consider in good faith. Either side can also terminate with six months' written notice. That flexibility cuts both ways. It gives Argentina room to press for better terms, but it also raises the risk that the deal could be reopened or quietly shelved if political momentum fades.

Economic Stakes

Argentina's exports to the United States reached almost $6 billion in January–July 2026, up 38 percent from a year earlier, according to official data. That growth raises the economic stakes of locking in preferential terms. Exporters of beef, lithium, copper, and manufactured goods could benefit from lower U.S. tariff barriers, while Argentine consumers and import-dependent businesses would gain from cheaper U.S. machinery, medical equipment, technology, and vehicles.

But domestic producers in agriculture, autos, dairy, and manufacturing may oppose rapid liberalization, fearing intensified competition from U.S. imports. Those interests could seek safeguards, quotas, or transition periods. On the U.S. side, cattle producers have already objected to expanded Argentine beef access, highlighting the domestic politics that complicate the deal.

The agreement also carries strategic weight. Argentina has committed to facilitating U.S. investment in critical minerals, energy, infrastructure, telecom, and power generation, and to cooperating on export controls and investment screening. It must not purchase nuclear reactors, fuel rods, or enriched uranium from certain unspecified countries. These provisions position Argentina more firmly within U.S.-aligned supply chains, though they could complicate relations with other trading partners, particularly China.

Political Calculations

Milei's government has pursued broad deregulation, fiscal adjustment, and lower trade barriers, aiming to make Argentina a more predictable destination for foreign investment. The U.S. framework was announced in November 2025 and converted into the February 2026 agreement. Yet ratification requires congressional approval, and Milei's legislative agenda has also included contentious labor reforms and other politically costly measures.

The contrast with Argentina's recent approval of the EU–Mercosur agreement is notable. The Senate approved that pact 69–3 in February, showing that Milei can marshal votes for large trade accords when the politics align. The delay on the U.S. deal suggests that the terms, as currently written, do not yet command sufficient support.

U.S. officials have not publicly commented on the ratification timeline. A spokesperson for Argentina's foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

What's Next

The key test is whether Milei formally submits the treaty to Congress and whether Washington provides sufficient clarity on tariff treatment, including how U.S. reciprocal-tariff authorities will be applied. Until ratification and the exchange of legal notifications occur, the treaty's schedules and market-access obligations are not in force.

If enacted, the deal could lower costs for Argentine businesses that need U.S. machinery, medical equipment, and industrial inputs, while broadening opportunities for selected Argentine exporters. The most immediate winners would likely be U.S. industrial and agricultural exporters, Argentine firms whose products fall within the U.S. tariff schedules, and investors in critical minerals and infrastructure.

But the risks are mounting. Congressional delay or demands for improved U.S. tariff terms could derail the pact. U.S. legal or policy changes affecting the reciprocal-tariff regime could undermine its value. Backlash from protected Argentine sectors and U.S. agricultural interests could further complicate ratification. And the agreement's China-related strategic provisions may limit Argentina's flexibility to attract non-U.S. investment.

For now, the deal remains in limbo—signed but not sealed. Until both sides complete their legal procedures, the promised benefits remain a matter of negotiation, not obligation.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the ARTI signing. It was signed on 5 February 2026, not 5 February 2025.