• The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired on February 5, 2026, ending legally binding limits on strategic nuclear arsenals.
  • President Trump rejected a simple extension, insisting on a new multilateral agreement involving China, while Russia remains open to talks.
  • The expiration risks triggering an arms race, with U.S. military modernization and rising global tensions driving defense spending.

A Critical Juncture for Nuclear Arms Control

Efforts to restructure nuclear arms control have hit a snag as the New START treaty lapsed overnight on February 5, 2026, according to people familiar with the matter. The expiration removes legally binding limits on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems, which collectively account for roughly 85% of global stockpiles. Without a deal, the world faces heightened risks of an uncontrolled arms buildup, experts warn.

President Trump, who has claimed credit for strengthening U.S. military capabilities through nuclear modernization, Space Force, and naval expansion, rejected a straightforward extension of New START. Instead, he is advocating for a new, stronger nuclear agreement that includes additional nations like China. "We need a treaty that reflects today's realities, not outdated bilateral limits," a senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official added that Trump views this as essential to preventing nuclear conflicts between major rivals, though no formal replacement exists yet.

Ongoing Negotiations and Market Implications

In Abu Dhabi, envoys are negotiating a non-binding mutual adherence to prior limits for six months or more, according to sources briefed on the talks. Russia has expressed openness to discussions but views the expiration negatively, with one diplomat calling it "a step backward for global stability." Meanwhile, U.S. officials like Secretary Rubio emphasize China's growing arsenal as a key concern, though China has rejected trilateral involvement, citing disparities in nuclear capabilities.

The expiration could spur an arms race, boosting U.S. defense budgets and driving billions in contracts for military modernization. Trends show Russia and China expanding their capabilities—for instance, Russia's development of the Poseidon torpedo—which is pressuring NATO allies to increase spending. "This isn't just about treaties; it's about real dollars flowing into defense sectors amid rising tensions," an industry analyst noted.

Political and Security Fallout

Trump's push for a multilateral treaty over a bilateral extension echoes past rejections of proposals from Russian President Putin, such as one-year extensions floated earlier. In the U.S., Congress has voiced concerns, with Senator Markey urging recommitment to avoid what he termed a "dangerous and costly" arms race. Russia had suspended verification measures during the COVID pandemic but had adhered to New START limits until the expiration.

International implications are significant, heightening U.S.-Russia tensions and NATO concerns over Russian "strategic intimidation." The situation also strains relations with China, which refuses parity-based talks. Experts like Rose Gottemoeller, a former U.S. arms control official, stress the value of predictability, warning that the loss of verification mechanisms increases nuclear war risks. "We're losing a critical tool for stability," Gottemoeller said in a recent interview.

Looking ahead, a short-term informal adherence is likely pending presidential endorsement, enabling new talks. In the long term, analysts predict that if no deal is reached, a buildup could ensue, with the U.S. focus on China potentially delaying bilateral progress and eroding security. The Doomsday Clock's proximity has sparked public debates, underscoring the societal impact of these developments.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the expiration date; it was February 5, 2026, not 2025.