• Russian President Vladimir Putin states the framework for nuclear arms control has collapsed, citing the impending expiration of the New START treaty in February 2026.
  • Despite a recent summit, U.S.-Russia negotiations for a successor agreement remain deadlocked, largely over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
  • The absence of a new treaty raises the prospect of both nations rapidly expanding their deployed nuclear arsenals for the first time in decades.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared this week that the international system governing nuclear arms control has been destroyed, a stark assessment that underscores the precarious state of strategic stability between the world's two largest nuclear powers. The statement comes as the last remaining pact limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), is set to expire in February 2026 without a successor agreement in sight.

Efforts to restart formal negotiations have hit a significant snag, according to people familiar with the matter, who say talks are effectively frozen. The primary obstacle remains the war in Ukraine, with both sides linking progress on arms control to broader geopolitical demands. While both U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin expressed a willingness to engage on the issue following their summit in Alaska last August, that dialogue has failed to produce a concrete pathway forward.

Without a deal, the strategic landscape would revert to a state not seen since the depths of the Cold War, with no verified limits on the number of deployed warheads, bombers, and missiles. Analysts warn this could trigger a new arms race. "The expiration of New START without a follow-on would remove the floor, allowing both countries to upload more warheads onto their existing delivery systems within months," said a senior fellow at a non-proliferation think tank. "We are watching the pillars of strategic stability crumble."

The U.S. has also pushed to include China in any future arms control framework, given its ongoing nuclear modernization, but Beijing has repeatedly declined to participate in trilateral talks. This adds another layer of complexity to an already fraught diplomatic process. Attempts to reach spokespeople at the U.S. State Department and Russia's foreign ministry for comment on the current state of negotiations were not immediately successful.

This article was updated to correct the expiration date of the New START treaty, which is February 2026.