• Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia will adhere to New START limits for one year post-expiration in 2026, but only if the U.S. does the same.
  • Despite public willingness from both sides, no formal negotiations for a treaty extension or successor agreement have begun.
  • The lack of a deal risks a return to strategic instability and a nuclear arms race not seen since the Cold War.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that Russia is prepared to comply with the New START nuclear arms treaty's limits for one year after its scheduled expiration in February 2026, conditional on the United States taking the same step. The offer, made in a recent policy address, signals a potential off-ramp from a complete collapse of the last major arms control pact between the two nations.

However, this conditional pledge comes amid a diplomatic standstill. As of late May 2025, no formal negotiations between Moscow and Washington have commenced regarding either extending the treaty or crafting a successor agreement, according to officials familiar with the matter. The absence of working groups or substantive talks leaves the long-term future of bilateral arms control in doubt, even as both governments publicly express a desire for dialogue.

New START, which caps the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and launchers for both countries, has been on shaky ground since Russia suspended its participation in February 2023. That move halted on-site inspections, though Moscow claimed it would continue to abide by the treaty's central limits. The recent statements from Putin and the Biden administration suggest a shared interest in avoiding an uncontrolled lapse, but political tensions, particularly over Ukraine, continue to obstruct progress. A State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that "channels remain open" but characterized the current state of play as "pre-negotiation."

Efforts to broaden the discussion have also faltered. The U.S. has repeatedly pushed for China to join future arms control talks, but Beijing has consistently refused, arguing its nuclear arsenal is far smaller than those of Washington and Moscow and is based on a policy of minimum deterrence. This complicates the prospect of a modernized framework that reflects current global strategic realities.

The international community is watching with growing concern. A coalition of two dozen non-nuclear nations, led by Austria, has issued public calls for urgent negotiations, warning that a treaty lapse would dangerously undermine global security. "We are facing the very real prospect of the complete erosion of the bilateral arms control architecture," said one European diplomat. "The one-year pledge is a start, but it's a temporary fix, not a solution."

Without a new agreement, both nations are likely to accelerate nuclear modernization programs already underway, potentially triggering a new arms race. The U.S. Congress recently debated a new multi-billion dollar missile defense initiative, a move that analysts say could prompt further Russian countermeasures. The window for action is narrowing, and the diplomatic inertia is causing alarm among arms control experts who warn that the strategic stability enjoyed for decades is rapidly dissipating.