• New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu projects Nvidia could become the first company to generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
  • The forecast is predicated on an estimated $3–4 trillion in annual AI infrastructure spending by the end of the decade, with Nvidia capturing a 55–60% market share.
  • The bullish outlook follows Nvidia's recent earnings beat and stands in stark contrast to the performance of some rivals, who have missed expectations.

Nvidia Corp.’s staggering run may just be the beginning, with one analyst projecting the chipmaker could achieve a previously unthinkable milestone: $1 trillion in annual revenue within the next five to six years. The forecast from New Street Research’s Pierre Ferragu aligns with Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang’s own outlook for $3 to $4 trillion in annual AI-related capital expenditure by 2030.

Ferragu’s model suggests Nvidia is positioned to capture well over half of that burgeoning market, translating to data-center revenue of $1 to $1.2 trillion. For context, Wall Street’s current consensus expects Nvidia’s data-center sales to reach $184 billion this fiscal year—a figure that would represent less than a fifth of that 2030 target.

The projection arrives on the heels of another blowout quarter for the semiconductor leader, which reported record quarterly revenue of $46.7 billion for its fiscal second quarter, a 56% increase from the year-ago period. Data-center revenue, the engine of its growth, reached $41.1 billion. While this figure slightly missed the most bullish Street forecasts, triggering some stock volatility, the company still handily exceeded overall earnings estimates.

“The fundamental growth drivers remain entirely intact,” said one analyst who asked not to be named because their report is not yet public. “The question isn’t about demand; it’s about execution and supply.”

Nvidia’s success has been fueled by an insatiable demand for its GPUs and full-stack AI software solutions, which have become the de facto standard for training and running large generative AI models. This has prompted a global modernization of data-center computing stacks, a trend that shows no sign of abating.

However, the path to a trillion dollars is not without significant hurdles. Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips to China, present a persistent headwind. Nvidia has been awaiting regulatory approval to ship between $2 billion and $5 billion worth of its specially designed H20 chips for the Chinese market, a key international region for its sales. A proposed 15% remittance on chip sales to China also looms as a potential drag on future revenue.

Efforts to get comment from Nvidia on the long-term revenue model were unsuccessful.

The company’s dominance also stands in stark relief against the performance of some competitors. Rival chipmaker Marvell Technology Inc., for instance, recently missed earnings expectations, underscoring the unique competitive moat Nvidia has built around its AI technology.

While Ferragu’s forecast is exceptionally bullish, it highlights the scale of the economic transformation underway as AI adoption accelerates. If even partially realized, it would fundamentally reshape the landscape of the global technology sector, making Nvidia not just a product company but a foundational utility for the next era of computing.