- Bernstein raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,533 per ounce, with a second-half target of $4,375.
- The bullish outlook hinges on strong central bank demand, limited ETF outflows, and expectations that the Fed will avoid aggressive rate hikes.
- Persistent inflation poses a key risk, potentially forcing higher rates and capping gold gains.
Bullish Forecast on Central Bank Demand
Bernstein now sees gold hitting $4,533 per ounce in 2026, with a second-half target of $4,375, according to a research note released this week. The revision reflects a more confident view that central bank buying and investor inflows will continue to support prices. "Central bank demand remains a structural driver," the note said, citing diversification away from the US dollar.
ETF flows have also been supportive, with continued inflows amplifying price moves. "Investors are rotating into gold as a hedge," a Bernstein strategist said. The firm's bullishness assumes the Federal Reserve will not tighten aggressively, which would typically buoy bullion.
The Inflation Risk
However, Bernstein warns that persistent inflation could force higher rates, pressuring gold. "If inflation stays sticky, real rates could rise, capping gains," the note cautioned. This tension between central bank demand and monetary policy is a key theme for 2026.
Market Context
The forecast comes amid broader uncertainty about global growth and dollar strength. A weaker dollar generally supports gold, while a stronger one can cap gains. Reached for comment, a Fed spokesperson declined to discuss policy, but market pricing suggests a split view on rate cuts. "The path for gold depends on data," said a market analyst.
Correction: An earlier version misstated the second-half target. It is $4,375 per ounce.