• Ship crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 25 yesterday, below the recent daily average of 30–50.
  • Traffic slowed after President Trump declared the U.S.–Iran ceasefire over and both sides exchanged further strikes.
  • Maritime analysts say the recent recovery in shipping activity has collapsed, with the Strait again operating under full conflict conditions.

Renewed Disruption at Global Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for about a fifth of the world's oil supply, is seeing a sharp decline in traffic after a brief period of calm. Ship transits dropped to just 25 on Wednesday, according to maritime tracking data, well under the average of 30–50 vessels per day recorded in recent weeks. The plunge follows President Donald Trump's declaration that the U.S.–Iran ceasefire was over, with both sides exchanging fresh strikes.

"The recovery we saw earlier this month has completely evaporated," said a senior analyst at a London-based maritime security firm. "We're back to full conflict conditions, and shippers are understandably risk-averse." The analyst spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive operational data. Attempts to reach the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet for comment were unsuccessful.

Implications for Oil Markets

Crude oil futures edged higher on the news, though the market remains cautious about demand-side pressures. The Strait's disruption typically adds a risk premium of $2–$5 per barrel, traders said. Tanker insurance premiums have also surged, with war risk underwriters increasing charges for vessels transiting the area. "We're seeing rates that are 10–15 times higher than pre-crisis levels," said a broker specializing in marine insurance, who asked not to be named.

Fragile Prospects

Without a renewed diplomatic push, shipping activity is unlikely to recover. Iran has warned that it will restrict passage to vessels with valid clearance, while U.S. forces have stepped up patrols. The combination of military risks and unclear regulatory procedures is deterring operators. "No shipowner wants to be caught in the middle of a firefight," the maritime analyst added. "Until there's a verifiable ceasefire, we expect traffic to remain depressed."

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the pre-crisis daily average as 40–50. It has been corrected to 30–50.