• OPEC+ is leaning toward resuming oil production increases from April, driven by expected summer demand peaks and Brent crude prices near $68/bbl, supported by U.S.-Iran tensions.
  • No final decision has been made ahead of the March 1 meeting of eight key members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, with formal talks pending.
  • January output fell 439k bpd to 42.45m bpd due to declines in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, but Kazakhstan expects a February recovery.

OPEC+ is edging closer to resuming oil production hikes as early as April, according to people familiar with the matter, a move aimed at capitalizing on anticipated summer demand surges and current price stability buoyed by geopolitical strains. The group, which paused increases in the first quarter amid fears of a supply glut, now sees an opportunity to regain market share, particularly for core producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Brent crude trades near $68 a barrel, hovering close to a six-month high, as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to underpin the market.

Efforts to coordinate the output resumption have hit a snag, with no final agreement yet among the eight key members set to convene on March 1. These include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman. "The discussions are fluid, and everything hinges on the upcoming meeting," said one source, who requested anonymity because the talks are private. Attempts to reach official spokespeople for comment were unsuccessful as of press time.

Recent data complicates the picture. OPEC's monthly report, released February 11, noted that January production dropped by 439,000 barrels per day to 42.45 million bpd, largely due to disruptions in Kazakhstan, where output fell 249,000 bpd following issues at the Tengiz and Korolev fields and the CPC terminal. Kazakhstan, however, expects a recovery in February, with loadings projected to reach 1.15-1.25 million bpd. Other declines came from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, all grappling with sanctions and operational challenges.

Without a deal to boost output, OPEC+ risks ceding ground to non-OPEC producers, but the group's internal forecasts suggest a tightrope walk. OPEC holds an optimistic view for 2026, projecting demand growth unchanged at 1.38 million bpd—higher than the International Energy Agency's estimate of 850,000 bpd. Yet, the same report indicates that second-quarter demand for OPEC+ crude could drop by 400,000 bpd to 42.20 million bpd compared to the first quarter, implying a small surplus of around 250,000 bpd if January production rates hold. This contrasts with OPEC's full-year deficit outlook, where demand is seen at 43 million bpd versus January's output.

Political factors loom large. U.S.-Iran tensions, including potential military action or shifts in nuclear deal negotiations, are key influencers, making the resumption a strategic play for Saudi Arabia and the UAE as they navigate sanctions affecting rivals like Russia, Venezuela, and Iran. In a parallel development, Serbia's NIS is seeking a sanctions waiver for crude imports, highlighting the broader energy sector's scramble amid geopolitical uncertainty. Market reactions have been sharp: rumors of the April hike earlier this week caused prices to plummet briefly, underscoring the fragility of current supports.

Looking ahead, the March 1 meeting will be pivotal. If OPEC+ greenlights increases, it could ease fuel costs for consumers but pressure revenues for producers, especially those under sanctions. The group's data, which points to a 2026 supply deficit, clashes with IEA warnings of a glut, setting the stage for a high-stakes decision. For now, stakeholders are watching loadings and geopolitical developments closely, with summer demand just around the corner.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the expected February loadings for Kazakhstan; it has been updated to reflect the correct range of 1.15-1.25 million bpd.