• Elbridge Colby, nominated for a senior Pentagon role, testified that Taiwan's current defense budget and preparations are inadequate against China's military buildup.
  • U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth separately characterized the Chinese invasion threat as potentially "imminent," citing recent military exercises as invasion rehearsals.
  • The U.S. administration is pressuring Taiwan to increase defense spending closer to 10% of GDP to enhance deterrence and self-reliance.

Urgent Warnings in Senate Testimony

Elbridge Colby, the nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy, delivered a stark assessment to the Senate Armed Services Committee, stating that Taiwan must rapidly strengthen its defense capabilities to deter or survive a potential Chinese invasion. Colby pointed to an "alarming lack of urgency" and insufficient defense spending in Taipei, despite growing Chinese military pressure and preparations around the island.

Colby's testimony highlighted that Taiwan’s current defense budget and preparations are inadequate given what he described as a "dramatic deterioration in the military balance across the Taiwan Strait." His comments reflect a significant shift within the U.S. administration toward a more hawkish stance under President Trump, emphasizing "peace through strength" and an "America first" approach in the Indo-Pacific.

Imminent Threat Assessment

Separately, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amplified these concerns, warning that the threat of a Chinese invasion "could be imminent." Hegseth specifically referenced large-scale Chinese military exercises around Taiwan, which he characterized as "rehearsals for the real deal." This marks some of the most direct language yet from senior U.S. officials about the timeline of potential conflict.

According to people familiar with internal assessments, the Pentagon has observed increased sophistication in China's invasion rehearsal exercises, including coordinated amphibious assault simulations and blockade scenarios. These developments have accelerated the urgency in Washington's messaging to Taipei.

Pressure for Increased Defense Spending

The U.S. administration is now explicitly pressuring Taiwan to spend closer to 10% of its GDP on defense, a substantial increase from current levels that American policymakers view as insufficient. This push comes amid tense U.S.-China relations over trade, technology, and military influence, with Washington deepening security ties with regional allies as a counterbalance to Beijing's assertiveness.

When reached for comment, a spokesperson for Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said they "are continuously evaluating our defense needs in close consultation with American partners," but declined to specify whether they would meet the 10% GDP spending target. The ministry did not respond to multiple requests for additional comment on Colby's specific warnings.

Strategic Implications

The warnings come as the U.S. continues to operate under commitments mandated by the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires arms sales to Taiwan but does not guarantee automatic military intervention. This strategic ambiguity has long been a cornerstone of U.S. policy, though current administration officials appear to be testing its limits with more explicit demands for Taiwanese preparedness.

A conflict over Taiwan would have severe consequences for regional security and global supply chains, particularly in semiconductors, given Taiwan's dominant position in that industry. U.S. experts are increasingly urging re-industrialization of American military capacity to maintain deterrence and prepare for possible multi-theater conflicts.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage of GDP the U.S. is urging Taiwan to spend on defense. The figure is approximately 10%, not 15% as initially reported.