• Russia has resumed diesel shipments from its Baltic port of Primorsk after Washington temporarily eased sanctions.
  • A tanker carrying 40,000 tons is reportedly heading to Morocco, though this detail could not be independently verified.
  • Moscow expects exports to reach 3–3.5 million tons per month by year-end, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Fragile Prospects

Russia has resumed diesel exports from its Baltic port of Primorsk after the U.S. Treasury issued a temporary sanctions exemption, marking a partial reopening of trade that had been restricted since July. The move follows an October 9 phone call between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin and subsequent diplomatic efforts to draw Moscow back to negotiations over the war in Ukraine.

A tanker carrying 40,000 tons of diesel is reportedly en route to Morocco, according to the headline, though that specific shipment could not be immediately corroborated. The office of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak did not respond to requests for comment on the vessel’s owner, the seller, or the Moroccan buyer.

The U.S. Treasury’s General License 135, issued on October 9, authorizes specified transactions involving Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027. It does not permit debits to U.S.-institution accounts held by Russia’s central bank, National Wealth Fund, or Finance Ministry. European Union and U.K. sanctions remain in place, leaving traders and shippers to navigate a fragmented regulatory landscape.

Partial Lifting

On October 10, Russia partially lifted its own export ban, initially allowing 500,000 metric tons of diesel onto global markets, with contracts subject to government approval. Two days later, Novak said monthly exports could reach 3–3.5 million tons by year-end—a projection, not a confirmed shipment rate, that would approach pre-crisis levels. Before refinery strikes in 2024–2025, Russia exported more than 3 million tons per month.

Trump separately announced a staged release: more than 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, and another 1 million tons “immediately thereafter.” Those figures should not be confused with Novak’s eventual monthly target.

The deal aims to ease a global diesel shortage that has been exacerbated by the Iran war and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. High U.S. diesel prices are hurting truckers and farmers, according to analysts. Yet the initial volumes are modest: Trump’s first 300,000-ton release equals about 2.25 million barrels—less than one day’s U.S. transport-sector consumption, based on EIA data. Kpler estimates the global diesel deficit at roughly 1 million barrels per day, while the announced November release would average only about 124,000 barrels per day over a month.

Mixed Signals

Diesel futures dipped following the announcement. Novak claimed global diesel prices had fallen around 5–6%, but that is his assessment, not proof that the agreement alone caused the drop. Analysts are skeptical of immediate relief. Rachel Ziemba says the waiver is unlikely to improve global diesel fundamentals much in the near term, while Kpler’s Michelle Brouhard emphasizes uncertainty over Russia’s ability to deliver additional barrels.

For Russia, the exemption could improve export revenues and reduce some transportation and transaction costs. However, sanctions relief cannot restore damaged refinery capacity—the key physical constraint on sustained exports. Russia has been forced to import diesel from Belarus, India, and South Korea to compensate for refinery damage.

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators argues the decision conflicts with the statutory 2022 prohibition on Russian oil and petroleum-product imports. Treasury maintains it is acting in compliance with applicable laws. Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is seeking a House vote to block Russian oil purchases.

Broader Implications

The agreement is also entangled in diplomatic efforts. Trump’s envoys told Ukrainian officials it was intended to draw Russia into talks after earlier efforts failed. Critics argue it restores Russian revenue without securing meaningful concessions over the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russian attacks on at least six Ukrainian energy targets on October 12 demonstrated Moscow was not observing an energy ceasefire.

The most useful indicators will be actual loadings and deliveries, refinery operating capacity, and further Russian export approvals—not headline promises alone. The exemption’s April 7, 2027 expiry creates a clear policy decision point for any sustained reopening.

Update: This article was updated to clarify that the 40,000-ton tanker shipment to Morocco is reported in the headline and has not been independently verified.

A previous version incorrectly stated that the U.S. Treasury license authorizes all Russian diesel transactions. It authorizes only specified transactions and does not permit debits to certain Russian sovereign accounts.