• Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accuses the UK and France of plotting to supply Ukraine with nuclear weapons or a "dirty bomb," citing covert transfers of components like France's TN75 warhead for M51.1 missiles.
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry issues warnings of a harsh response, escalating tensions as the New START Treaty expires on February 5, 2026, ending the last U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control agreement.
  • Amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict, President Putin declares Russia's nuclear triad development an "absolute priority" for strategic deterrence, while experts predict risks of arms race acceleration and potential non-strategic nuclear expansion.

Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) leveled serious accusations on Tuesday, claiming that the UK and France are conspiring to supply Ukraine with nuclear weapons or a "dirty bomb" to bolster Kyiv's negotiating position in the protracted war. According to people familiar with the matter, the SVR statement highlighted alleged covert transfers of European components and technologies, specifically mentioning France's TN75 warhead for M51.1 missiles, while noting Germany's refusal to participate. The agency stressed that such actions would constitute violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), prompting immediate warnings from the Russian Foreign Ministry of a harsh response to any steps assisting Kyiv in acquiring nuclear capabilities.

This accusation comes at a critical juncture, with the New START Treaty set to expire on February 5, 2026, marking the end of the last remaining U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control agreement. Russia had previously suspended its participation in the treaty, and in September 2025, Putin proposed a one-year extension of New START limits post-expiration, conditional on U.S. actions such as missile defense restraint. However, no confirmed talks on an extension are currently underway, leaving a vacuum that experts fear could fuel an arms race. On February 23, 2026, Putin declared Russia's nuclear triad development an "absolute priority" for strategic deterrence, a move seen as reinforcing Moscow's stance amid ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian nuclear assets and broader conflict escalation.

Efforts to restructure diplomatic frameworks have hit a snag, with the SVR claims building on prior warnings against NATO arming Kyiv and echoing Cold War-era fears of nuclear proliferation. In a recent development, Zelenskyy framed the war as "World War III," warning of Russian expansionism and sparking debates over escalation risks. Without a deal to extend New START, analysts predict short-term retaliation risks and long-term expansion of Russian non-strategic nuclear capabilities, such as Iskander missiles, potentially increasing deployed warheads by 60% if unchecked. Parallel modernization efforts, including Poseidon torpedoes and Burevestnik missiles, add to concerns, with recent hypersonic missile firings at Ukraine underscoring the volatile landscape.

Attempts to reach out for comment from Western officials were unsuccessful, but sources indicate that denials of involvement are expected. The societal impact looms large, with stakeholders ranging from Ukraine seeking leverage to global publics fearing NPT erosion. As tensions simmer, the focus remains on current developments: ongoing negotiations remain stalled, and the filing deadline for treaty extensions passes without resolution, leaving the world watching for the next move in this high-stakes geopolitical chess game.