• Standard Chartered sharply reduces its Bitcoin price targets through 2029, now expecting $150,000 in 2026 instead of $300,000.
  • The bank cites weaker-than-expected corporate and institutional buying, shifting focus to spot ETFs as the primary near-term demand driver.
  • Despite the cuts, the long-term outlook remains bullish, with a $500,000 target for 2030, though delayed by two years.

Standard Chartered has significantly dialed back its Bitcoin price forecasts, reflecting a more cautious stance amid recent market volatility. In a research note released Thursday, the bank's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, outlined revised projections that see Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026—half the previous $300,000 target. The adjustments extend through 2029, with the year-end 2025 target trimmed to $100,000 from $200,000, and the 2030 goal of $500,000 pushed back from 2028.

Kendrick described the recent pullback, which saw Bitcoin drop roughly 40% from its October all-time high to around $90,000, as "typical" for the asset, characterizing it as "a cold breeze" rather than a full-blown crypto winter. However, the underlying thesis has shifted. According to people familiar with the matter, corporate treasury buying and broader institutional balance-sheet adoption have proven much weaker than anticipated, forcing the bank to recalibrate its models. As a result, spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly in the U.S. and other major markets, are now viewed as the main structural driver of demand and price appreciation in the near term.

Efforts to reach Standard Chartered for additional comment were unsuccessful, but the bank's research unit has been a vocal proponent of Bitcoin's long-term potential, even as it adapts to changing market dynamics. Kendrick emphasized that global investment portfolios remain underweight Bitcoin, supporting the bullish 2030 outlook despite the near-term cuts. This revision aligns with a broader trend among financial institutions, where analysts are tempering extreme bullish expectations while still endorsing the asset's growth trajectory.

Market observers note that the current drawdown falls within historical norms for Bitcoin, especially in the post-ETF era, suggesting a maturing market structure rather than a structural collapse. Some experts, including figures like Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, argue that increasing institutional participation could dampen the extreme volatility associated with past four-year halving cycles, leading to a slower but steadier ascent. Standard Chartered's updated forecasts reflect this nuanced view, balancing short-term realism with long-term optimism.

In the background, regulatory stability and the continued expansion of ETF offerings are critical assumptions underpinning the bank's outlook. Without sustained ETF inflows or a favorable regulatory environment, the revised targets could face further downward pressure. For now, investors are adjusting to a landscape where digital asset treasury buying has largely stalled, leaving ETFs as the dominant force in Bitcoin's next phase of growth.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the year for the $500,000 target; it is 2030, not 2028.