• Standard Chartered (STAN.L) analyst Geoff Kendrick forecasts short-term declines for Bitcoin to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 amid weakening risk sentiment.
  • A softening U.S. economy and delayed Fed rate cuts until June are pressuring markets, alongside falling digital-asset ETF holdings.
  • The bank recently cut its year-end 2026 Bitcoin forecast to $100,000 (from $150,000) and Ethereum to $4,000 (from $7,500), citing near-term pressures while maintaining optimism for Ethereum's relative outperformance.

A Cooling Crypto Climate

Bitcoin and ether may face further declines as risk appetite weakens, according to Standard Chartered's global head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick. In a recent analysis, Kendrick pointed to a softening U.S. economy and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts until June as key factors weighing on markets, alongside falling holdings in digital-asset exchange-traded funds.

"We're seeing a clear shift in sentiment," Kendrick noted in comments that have circulated among institutional clients. "The macro backdrop is becoming less favorable for risk assets, and crypto is feeling that pressure." Bitcoin was recently trading at $67,869 after hitting a 16-month low of $60,008 last week, while ether traded at $1,984 after touching a nine-month low of $1,751.

Institutional Moves Amid Market Volatility

The warning comes as Standard Chartered expands its crypto services, having partnered this week with B2C2 to enhance institutional trading connectivity through its global banking network. The multinational bank, which operates in over 60 countries with a focus on Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, has been building out regulated crypto offerings including spot Bitcoin trading in the UK and custody services for 21Shares.

People familiar with the bank's strategy say these moves are part of a broader push to capture institutional demand despite near-term headwinds. "Banks like Standard Chartered are playing the long game," one industry executive said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "They're setting up infrastructure now so they're ready when the cycle turns."

Ethereum's Relative Strength

Despite the near-term caution, Kendrick maintains that Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin in the coming years, dubbing 2026 as potentially "the Year of Ethereum" similar to 2021. He predicts Ethereum's dominance in stablecoins, decentralized finance, and tokenization will drive the ETH/BTC ratio to 0.08 by 2026.

"The Fusaka upgrade in December 2025 should significantly boost Ethereum's throughput," Kendrick wrote in his latest research note, referencing the network's upcoming technical improvement. "Combine that with regulatory clarity expected from the U.S. Clarity Act in early 2026, and you have a recipe for institutional adoption of Ethereum-based applications."

Market Context and Corrections

The global crypto market cap has dropped from approximately $4 trillion in late 2025 to around $2.4 trillion by mid-February 2026, reflecting the broader risk-off environment. Asian trading continues to dominate the landscape, with blockchain transactions in the Asia-Pacific region reaching $2.36 trillion in 2025—a 69% increase year-over-year.

Standard Chartered representatives did not immediately respond to requests for additional comment on Kendrick's latest forecasts. The bank's partnership with Coinbase for institutional prime services targeting compliant hedge funds remains active, according to people familiar with both companies.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of the Fusaka upgrade. It is scheduled for December 2025, not 2026.