• Standard Chartered (STAN.L) cuts its end-2026 Bitcoin target to $100,000 from $150,000, warning prices could drop to $50,000 first.
  • The bank also reduces its 2026 Ether target to $4,000 from $7,500, anticipating a dip to about $1,400.
  • Bitcoin has fallen over 40% from its October peak, with nearly $8 billion in outflows from U.S. spot ETFs, though analysts note the downturn is more orderly than past crypto crashes.

Standard Chartered, the British multinational bank focused on wealth management and corporate banking in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, has slashed its cryptocurrency forecasts for the second time in three months, citing persistent headwinds in digital asset markets. The bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026, down from a previous target of $150,000, and warned that prices could fall to $50,000 before recovering. In a move that underscores growing caution, it also cut its Ether target to $4,000 from $7,500, predicting a potential drop to $1,400 first.

According to people familiar with the matter, the revisions reflect concerns over ETF outflows, a weaker macro backdrop, and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have pressured crypto prices globally. Bitcoin has tumbled more than 40% from its October peak, while investors have pulled nearly $8 billion from U.S. spot ETFs in recent months, signaling a shift away from speculative assets amid economic uncertainty. Despite the steep declines, sources close to the bank describe the sell-off as more measured compared to previous crypto market crashes, with less panic-driven volatility.

Efforts to stabilize the crypto market have hit a snag as institutional interest wanes, according to analysts tracking the space. Standard Chartered, which operates in over 54 markets with a focus on cross-border trade and digital asset custody, has been at the forefront of integrating cryptocurrencies into traditional banking services. Its digital asset custody platform, launched with bank-grade security and regulatory compliance, aims to cater to affluent clients and institutional investors in emerging regions. However, without a sustained recovery in investor sentiment, the bank's growth projections for digital assets could face further downward revisions.

In a brief statement, a spokesperson for Standard Chartered noted that the bank remains committed to its long-term strategy in digital finance, emphasizing its role in providing risk management and hedging solutions amid market volatility. Attempts to reach other executives for comment on the timing of the target cuts were unsuccessful, but insiders suggest the adjustments align with broader cost-reduction initiatives and a focus on recurrent revenue streams. The bank, under CEO Bill Winters, has been consolidating IT systems and leveraging AI for fraud monitoring, part of a multi-year plan to enhance efficiency in high-growth areas like wealth management and cross-border banking.

As of early trading, Bitcoin hovered around $55,000, reflecting the ongoing pressure from ETF redemptions and macroeconomic factors. The downturn has particularly impacted retail and institutional investors in Asia and the Middle East, where Standard Chartered derives a significant portion of its profits from wealth management services. While some market participants view the price corrections as a healthy consolidation, others warn that further drops could test key support levels, potentially triggering more outflows. Standard Chartered's revised targets now set a cautious tone for the crypto sector's recovery, with the bank expecting a gradual rebound by 2026, contingent on improved macro conditions and regulatory stability.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeline for Standard Chartered's previous target cut; it occurred within the last three months, not six. The bank's focus on emerging markets remains unchanged.