• Stifel boosts its Tesla price target to $508 from $483, maintaining a Buy rating, citing accelerated progress in Full Self-Driving and robotaxi development.
  • The firm raises its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025, $19.5 billion for 2026, and $20.6 billion for 2027.
  • Near-term headwinds are acknowledged as the expiration of the U.S. EV tax credit could pressure auto sales.

Stifel has lifted its 12-month price target on Tesla Inc. shares to $508, up from $483, reinforcing its Buy rating on the stock. The move is driven by the firm's assessment that Tesla is making "stronger-than-expected" advancements in its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and the development of its planned robotaxi network, which Stifel views as pivotal long-term value drivers.

The revised valuation reflects a sum-of-the-parts analysis that assigns significant value to Tesla's future autonomous ventures. According to the firm's breakdown, the core automotive business is valued at 20-25 times 2026 EBITDA, contributing approximately $134 per share. The FSD technology is ascribed a 75% probability of success, adding $186 per share, while the robotaxi opportunity is similarly valued at a 75% probability, contributing $158 per share. A 50% probability for the Optimus humanoid robot project adds another $29 per share.

Alongside the raised price target, Stifel increased its EBITDA forecasts for the company, now projecting $14.9 billion for 2025, $19.5 billion for 2026, and $20.6 billion for 2027. These upward revisions are tied directly to the anticipated monetization of Tesla's autonomy software and the nascent robotaxi platform.

Despite the long-term optimism, the analysts struck a note of caution regarding the immediate future. They highlighted that the expiration of the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit could create near-term headwinds for Tesla's core auto sales, a factor that tempers the otherwise bullish outlook. This acknowledgment points to a potential divergence between near-term operational performance and long-term valuation based on technological milestones.

The upgrade from Stifel arrives amid a wave of positive analyst sentiment toward Tesla's autonomy push. Other firms have also recently raised their targets, signaling a broader reassessment of Tesla's potential to unlock value from its self-driving and artificial intelligence initiatives. The focus has shifted from quarterly delivery numbers to the company's progress in validating its autonomous technology on public roads and scaling its AI infrastructure.

Tesla's efforts to demonstrate the viability of a robotaxi network are intensifying, with plans for a dedicated unveiling event later this year. The success of this venture is seen by many investors as the key determinant of Tesla's ultimate market cap, potentially dwarfing its current standing as an automaker. Stifel's revised model suggests the firm believes these milestones are becoming more tangible, even as the broader market awaits further technical and regulatory validation.