• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually halted, with traffic down to an average of 13 vessels per day from over 153 daily transits pre-conflict.
  • Insurance coverage removal and security warnings have made transit economically prohibitive, leading major shipping companies to reroute around Africa's Cape of Good Hope.
  • The disruption impacts approximately 20% of global daily oil supply, straining energy markets and supply chains with increased costs and delays.

A Commercial Standstill in a Critical Corridor

In the weeks following joint US-Israeli military strikes on Iran in late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has become a ghost waterway for commercial shipping. According to traffic data, only 78 vessels have transited since March 1, a stark drop from the norm, with just two ships observed crossing on March 14. This collapse isn't due to a formal blockade but to ship owners' reluctance to take chances, as war risk insurance was pulled on March 5, making passage financially untenable for most operators. Efforts to navigate the crisis have seen companies like Maersk (MAERSK-B.CO), CMA CGM (CMA), and Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.DE) suspend transits entirely, opting for longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope that add weeks to delivery times and spike fuel expenses.

Diplomatic Maneuvers and Economic Fallout

Behind the scenes, diplomatic negotiations are shaping access to the strait. Iran has selectively allowed vessels through based on political alignment, with Chinese ships briefly receiving special treatment in early March and India securing clearance for two liquefied petroleum gas carriers more recently. This selective access underscores how Iran is leveraging its geographic advantage for economic coercion, according to analysts familiar with the matter. The impact is global, but Europe faces compounded costs due to detours and emissions trading requirements, while over 150 ships remain anchored outside the strait, creating congestion in the Persian Gulf. Attempts to reach Iranian officials for comment were unsuccessful.

Looking Ahead with Uncertainty

The maritime security environment remains critical, with no attacks reported in the 72 hours before March 15, but the future outlook is murky. As long as the conflict persists, vessel availability will tighten, with ships booked months in advance and alternative routes like Saudi and UAE pipelines unable to match normal strait volumes. Without a swift resolution, the strain on energy markets and supply chains could intensify, though some industry insiders hint at ongoing talks to restore limited transit under new insurance frameworks. For now, ship owners aren't taking chances, and the strait's closure stands as a stark reminder of how quickly geopolitical tensions can disrupt global commerce.