- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased this week, but more ships are disabling AIS tracking signals during transit, according to Lloyd's List.
- Tanker owners are bracing for prolonged disruption as regional risks stay elevated.
- Transit volumes remain far below pre-conflict levels, when roughly 130 ships crossed daily carrying about 20% of global oil and gas supplies.
Strait Traffic Picks Up as Dark Transits Rise
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded this week, offering a glimmer of normalcy in a key energy artery. But a troubling pattern is emerging: a growing number of vessels are turning off their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) as they cross the chokepoint, a tactic known as “dark transiting” that obscures their movements, according to people familiar with maritime tracking data.
The uptick in crossings — while still far below the pre-conflict average of about 130 ships per day — suggests some trade is resuming after months of heightened geopolitical risk. However, the rise in dark transits signals that operators remain skittish about exposing their cargoes and routes, particularly those linked to Iran or sensitive crude shipments.
“Tanker owners are bracing for prolonged disruption,” a London-based shipbroker said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. Without a steady flow of normally tracked ships, insurers are hiking war risk premiums, and charterers are adding surcharges to haul crude through the strait.
Global oil prices have reacted to the shifts, with Brent crude futures trading in a volatile range as the market prices in the elevated risk of a major blockage. The strait carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.
The increase in visible traffic may partly reflect the deployment of naval escorts and safe-passage arrangements, which have allowed a growing number of non-Iranian vessels to re-enter the route under protection. Still, questions linger about the durability of these arrangements.
“It’s a fluid situation,” said a senior analyst at a maritime risk consultancy, adding that the numbers of dark transits and escorted movements would be key to watch in coming weeks. “The fragility of supply chains here was made clear over the past year, and we’re not out of the woods yet.”
Lloyd’s List earlier reported that insurance costs and freight rates remain elevated, with some shipowners routing alternative cargoes away from Hormuz entirely. The long-run implications could include structural diversification of energy trade routes or expanded safe-passage corridors, analysts said.
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated the number of ships crossing daily before the conflict. It is around 130, not 120.