• Strait of Hormuz traffic remains significantly below pre-war levels, with 34 vessels passing through yesterday, according to Kpler.
  • The U.S.-Iran agreement two weeks ago improved flows, but volumes are still far from the historical norm of about 100 ships per day.
  • The ongoing bottleneck heightens oil price volatility and rerouting costs, with shipping companies facing higher risk premiums.

Fragile Recovery in a Key Chokepoint

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plateaued at 34 vessels per day, data from Kpler show, a figure that underscores the fragile nature of the recovery following the U.S.-Iran agreement two weeks ago. While this marks an improvement from the near-zero levels seen during the height of tensions, it remains a fraction of the pre-war average of roughly 100 ships daily.

“The corridor is far from normalized,” said a shipping executive familiar with transit operations, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Every day without an incident is a good day, but one spark could reverse the gains.”

Market Implications and Risk Premiums

The subdued traffic continues to roil global oil markets, keeping a premium on crude prices as traders factor in potential supply disruptions. Shipping lines are routing cargoes through longer paths, adding days to voyages and inflating insurance costs. The situation has also squeezed refiners in Asia and Europe, who rely on Gulf crude.

“We’re seeing persistent volatility in the crude tanker market,” said a London-based shipping analyst. “Until transit numbers climb decisively above 70 or 80 vessels, the risk remains high.”

The U.S. and Iran have offered no fresh statements on extending or strengthening their truce, leaving the industry to watch for any escalation. A spokesperson for the U.S. Fifth Fleet declined to comment on current traffic levels, citing operational security.

Outlook Remains Uncertain

For now, the Strait of Hormuz stays below normal, a symbol of how geopolitical flashpoints can disrupt global trade for months. The trajectory rests on diplomacy—and on the willingness of all parties to keep the waterway open. Without further progress, the 34-ship benchmark may prove stubbornly persistent.

This article has been updated to clarify that the pre-war baseline of 100 ships per day is an average, not a fixed number.