• Tesla (TSLA)'s robotaxi service expands to Miami with unsupervised operations, with Phoenix, Orlando, Tampa, Las Vegas, and potentially New Orleans on deck by year-end.
  • Morgan Stanley reiterates Equalweight rating and $415 price target, forecasting fleet growth to 1,500 vehicles by 2026 and 30,000 by 2030.
  • Investors focus on fleet expansion pace and safety data as key indicators of autonomous driving progress.

Morgan Stanley has maintained its Equalweight rating and $415 price target on Tesla after the company launched its robotaxi service in Miami, including unsupervised vehicles, according to a note from the bank. The expansion marks a significant step in Tesla's autonomous driving ambitions, with plans to roll out services in Phoenix, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas by the end of this year, and a possible extension into New Orleans.

The bank expects an update on Cybercab production at Giga Texas, which is seen as a critical component of Tesla's long-term robotaxi strategy. Morgan Stanley projects Tesla's robotaxi fleet will grow to 1,500 vehicles by the end of 2026 and 30,000 by 2030, underscoring the aggressive scaling timeline.

“Without a steady stream of safety data and regulatory approvals, the expansion could hit a snag,” one analyst noted, emphasizing that investor attention will remain fixed on fleet expansion and safety metrics as key indicators of Tesla's autonomous driving progress. The rollout highlights the company's shift from supervised to unsupervised operations, a milestone that distinguishes it in the competitive robotaxi landscape.

Tesla's push comes amid a broader race among autonomous vehicle players, including Waymo (GOOGL) and Zoox, to capture market share in urban mobility. The company's strategy leverages its existing vehicle fleet and over-the-air software updates, though it faces regulatory hurdles in individual cities. Efforts to secure permits for unsupervised operations have been ongoing, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Miami launch, which includes vehicles operating without human safety drivers, is a crucial test for Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology. “It’s a great opportunity to demonstrate real-world capabilities,” a source close to the company said, though Tesla did not respond to requests for comment.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the number of cities planned for expansion. It has been updated to reflect the correct list.