• Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Tesla's Overweight rating with a $425 price target, citing robotaxi potential and upcoming product launches.
  • Tesla prepares for June robotaxi launch in Austin with test operations and safety measures underway, though full autonomy remains uncertain.
  • Expansion plans include FSD in Europe, low-cost EVs, and Optimus Bot production, while navigating tariff risks and potential tax credit changes.

Tesla's Robotaxi Countdown Begins

Tesla is gearing up for its highly anticipated robotaxi service debut in Austin, Texas, with Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard maintaining confidence in the company's long-term prospects. The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $425 price target, suggesting nearly 100% upside from current levels despite near-term headwinds.

Approximately 300 test operators are currently running prototypes of Tesla's self-driving software through Austin streets as part of "Project Rodeo," according to people familiar with the matter. The company has shifted engineering resources from Full Self-Driving updates to focus on robotaxi development and recently conducted training with local first responders.

Initial service will launch with 10-20 Model Y vehicles in a geo-fenced area, supported by "plenty of teleoperation," according to internal documents reviewed by sources. However, with weeks remaining before the expected June launch, Tesla has yet to begin driverless testing in Austin—a potential hurdle for achieving full autonomy on schedule.

Strategic Expansion Amid Challenges

Beyond robotaxis, Tesla appears well-positioned to navigate tariff risks through its global manufacturing footprint, while preparing to launch a $30,000 EV with potential tax credits in early 2025. The company has already begun FSD rollouts in China and expects European deployment in the first half of next year.

"Tesla's vertical integration gives it unique advantages as competition intensifies," Sheppard noted in his research, while acknowledging risks including potential EV tax credit removal by late 2025. The analyst also highlighted upcoming milestones including Optimus Bot production scaling in 2026 and Semi Truck manufacturing.

With Elon Musk reportedly refocusing on Tesla starting this month, the company appears to be entering a critical execution phase across multiple business lines. However, regulatory approval and technological readiness for fully autonomous vehicles remain key variables that could impact timelines.