• President Trump alleges Iran is deliberately inflating oil prices by threatening Gulf shipping, aiming to weaken him before the November 3 midterms.
  • Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude climbing above $110 a barrel as attacks on commercial vessels escalate.
  • Iran denies fabricating incidents, but internal reports suggest Tehran is prolonging negotiations to deny Trump a political victory.

Rising Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz

President Trump on Wednesday accused Iran of deliberately driving up oil prices by sowing chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, as part of a broader effort to undermine his administration ahead of next month’s midterm elections. In a post on Truth Social (DJT), Trump claimed Iran is “fabricating” reports of attacks and mines to disrupt shipping, while also condemning the regime’s treatment of protesters. He reiterated his hardline stance: “IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON, AND THEY WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”

The accusation comes as tensions in the Gulf have escalated sharply. Iran’s state media reported that seven tankers were struck or damaged by mines overnight, though the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has not confirmed those incidents, according to the Associated Press. The AP noted that October has seen the most reported commercial-shipping attacks since March, with shipowners increasingly reluctant to report incidents due to security concerns.

Oil Prices and Economic Impact

Oil markets have reacted swiftly. Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel on October 22, according to Al Jazeera, as supply concerns mounted. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint: the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that about 20 million barrels per day—roughly 20% of global petroleum-liquids consumption—passed through the strait in 2024. Even the threat of disruption can send shipping costs and energy prices higher without a full closure.

“The risk premium is being driven by both actual supply disruptions and the fear of what could come next,” said Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, in a note to clients. Kpler estimates that geopolitical risk accounts for approximately $30 per barrel of oil’s current price. That’s a significant burden for U.S. consumers, who are already grappling with elevated gasoline prices—a key source of voter dissatisfaction ahead of the midterms.

Iran’s Strategy and Denials

Tehran has denied deliberately manipulating oil markets. However, Reuters (TRI) reported on October 20, citing three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, that Iran is intentionally prolonging negotiations to deny Trump a political win before the elections. The officials also cited deep distrust of Washington and fear of renewed U.S.-Israeli attacks as reasons for their stance.

Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days under Iranian control, in exchange for lifting the U.S. maritime blockade, easing oil-export restrictions, releasing frozen assets, and ending hostilities. The proposal was conveyed through Qatari mediators, according to Reuters. But the U.S. has insisted that Iran’s nuclear program be addressed first. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that Washington would reject any agreement that creates a pathway to an Iranian nuclear weapon.

Broader Regional and Domestic Fallout

The crisis extends beyond bilateral tensions. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have announced a more “offensive” doctrine and threatened wider retaliation if attacked again. The U.S. has ordered nonemergency personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia following recent Houthi attacks, signaling that the conflict could spill over into a wider regional confrontation.

Meanwhile, Iran’s economy is under severe strain. Reuters reported annual inflation of 73.6% in September, and the rial has depreciated nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reinstated its blockade in July. Seaborne Iranian crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September and remained there through October 5, according to Vortexa data cited by Reuters.

For U.S. households, the higher fuel costs are a tangible pain point. Trump has argued that elevated gasoline prices are an acceptable cost of preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon, but polling suggests the public is skeptical. The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the oil-price allegations.

What’s Next

With the midterms just days away, the conflict shows no signs of abating. Trump has said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the elections, but preparations for potential renewed U.S.-Israeli strikes are reportedly underway. Analysts warn that without a diplomatic breakthrough, energy-market volatility is likely to persist.

“The trajectory appears to favor renewed confrontation over negotiations,” said Negar Mortazavi, a fellow at the Centre for International Policy, in a note on October 22. “Both sides are dug in, and the costs are mounting for everyone involved.”

Clarification: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the Reuters report on Iran’s negotiating strategy. It was published on October 20, not October 19.