• The Oval Office meeting marks a significant thaw in U.S.-Turkey relations, with discussions centered on major defense contracts and regional security.
  • Turkey is pushing for readmission to the F-35 fighter jet program, a move that would reverse its 2019 expulsion over the Russian S-400 purchase.
  • Potential agreements with U.S. defense giants Lockheed Martin and Boeing could exceed $50 billion, providing a substantial boost to both nations' aerospace sectors.

A Diplomatic Reset

U.S. President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held their first bilateral meeting in six years on Wednesday, a high-profile engagement in the Oval Office followed by a working lunch that signals a notable revival of their personal rapport. The meeting, coming on the heels of Erdoğan’s attendance at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, aimed to strengthen bilateral ties, with a heavy focus on trade, investment, and, most significantly, defense industry cooperation.

Efforts to restructure the strained alliance have hit a snag in recent years, primarily over Turkey’s acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems, which led to its removal from the F-35 program. Without a deal to resolve this impasse, the prospect of normalized defense cooperation would remain out of reach. However, the scale of potential agreements now on the table, which could surpass $50 billion according to people familiar with the matter, appears to be driving a new round of diplomacy.

The F-35 and a $50 Billion Prize

A central topic was Turkey’s expressed interest in rejoining the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program and inking massive arms deals with U.S. firms Lockheed Martin and Boeing. The sheer size of the potential agreements underscores the economic stakes for a Turkish economy grappling with persistent inflation and currency instability. For U.S. defense contractors, the deals would represent a significant order uptick.

“What we are focused on is creating a stable framework for mutual economic benefit,” a senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official cautioned that while the leaders discussed the F-35 program, any readmission would require resolving the S-400 issue, a complex problem that has defied solution for years. A spokesperson for Lockheed Martin declined to comment on the specifics of the talks when reached.

Regional Security and the Road Ahead

Beyond economics, the leaders delved into ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. Erdoğan suggested the meeting could help deescalate regional tensions, though officials provided few concrete details on any policy shifts. The Biden administration had maintained strict limits on defense collaboration with Turkey, and while Trump’s engagement signals a shift, institutional caution within the Pentagon and State Department remains a significant hurdle.

The meeting is polarizing in policy circles. Proponents see it as a pragmatic reset, while critics warn of repeating past mistakes by prioritizing leader-to-leader relationships over robust, institutionalized policy frameworks. The future of this diplomatic opening now depends on whether both sides can translate the high-level talks into actionable agreements that address persistent strategic differences, particularly regarding Russia.