• Trump says oil prices rose less than expected during the Iran war and predicts U.S. gasoline will fall below $2 a gallon after a U.S. victory.
  • The forecast faces headwinds: crude surged above $100 a barrel and gas topped $4 during the conflict, though prices eased as peace talks raised hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
  • As of October 26, average U.S. gas was $2.95 a gallon—19 cents below a year earlier—but a sub-$2 national average is far from assured.

A Bold Call

Former President Donald Trump said oil prices rose less than he anticipated during the Iran war and predicted that U.S. gasoline will fall below $2 a gallon following a U.S. victory. The forecast, made in remarks to supporters, hinges on a swift resolution to the conflict and a smooth reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.

Trump’s optimism contrasts with the market’s recent experience. The conflict’s supply shock pushed crude above $100 a barrel and U.S. retail gasoline above $4 a gallon at the peak, according to industry data. Prices have since eased as peace talks raised hopes of restored flows through Hormuz, but they remain volatile.

“The president’s prediction is aspirational,” said one energy analyst, who requested anonymity to speak freely. “A durable decline to sub-$2 would require a sustained de-escalation and a significant increase in global supply—not just a ceasefire.”

Pump Prices and Politics

The national average for regular gasoline stood at $2.95 a gallon as of October 26, according to AAA, about 19 cents below the year-earlier level. That decline reflects seasonal demand shifts and easing crude costs, but the market remains exposed to the war’s duration, shipping through Hormuz, and global oil supply disruptions.

A sub-$2 national average is not assured even if the conflict ends soon. Pump prices also depend on refining margins, distribution costs, taxes, and seasonal demand. Federal and state fuel taxes alone add roughly 50 cents a gallon on average, making a sub-$2 target difficult to achieve without a sharp drop in crude.

Traders are watching for signs of progress in negotiations. Any breakthrough that reopens the Strait of Hormuz could unleash pent-up supply and pressure prices lower, but a prolonged conflict or new disruptions could quickly reverse the recent easing.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the former president’s prediction.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the AAA price reading. It was October 26, not October 16.