• Trump campaigns for Sen. Darline Graham in Rock Hill today, with the race tied 48-48 in a new poll.
  • Claims of record crowds and 99% GOP approval remain unverified; national approval sits at 32%.
  • Voter economic discontent, especially over gas prices, looms large.

Trump Rallies in South Carolina as Senate Race Tightens

President Trump is set to campaign for Republican Sen. Darline Graham in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on Thursday, as a new poll shows the race deadlocked. The rally, scheduled for 12:30 p.m. EDT at the Rock Hill Sports & Event Center, marks Trump’s third visit to the state this year and comes amid signs that typically Republican territory is up for grabs.

A New York Times (NYT)/Siena poll released Wednesday put Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews at 48% each, with a 4.3-percentage-point margin of error. The survey of 707 likely voters, conducted October 19-26, underscores the competitiveness of the contest and the challenge Trump faces in rallying support.

Trump has claimed that his midterm rally crowds are “five times larger than historical records” and that he enjoys “99% approval among Republicans.” Those figures have not been independently verified. Reuters (TRI)’ on-the-ground reporting has found uneven attendance at some events, and national polling shows Trump’s overall approval at 32%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos (IPS.PA) survey completed October 26.

Economic Concerns Dominate

The rally comes as voters express deep dissatisfaction with the economy. In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, 73% of voters said their cost of living was moving in the wrong direction, and they preferred Democrats’ economic approach over Republicans’ by 37% to 33%. Gasoline prices averaged $4.27 a gallon nationally, nearly 40% higher than a year ago, exacerbated by the Iran war, Reuters reported.

Trump is expected to highlight employment and stock-market gains, but those arguments may be overshadowed by kitchen-table concerns. “People are feeling the pinch at the pump and in the grocery store,” said one Republican strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “The president’s message on the economy is not breaking through.”

Party Unity at Stake

Graham, who was appointed by Gov. Henry McMaster to complete the term of her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, defeated Rep. Ralph Norman in the Republican primary runoff. But some Norman supporters have discussed writing in his name, and former Republican Gov. David Beasley has endorsed Andrews. Trump’s visit is seen as an attempt to bridge that intraparty divide.

“The president’s endorsement is powerful, but it’s not a magic wand,” said a South Carolina GOP operative familiar with the campaign. “He needs to persuade Norman’s backers to come home.”

National Headwinds

Nationally, Democrats hold a 47%-36% advantage on the generic congressional ballot, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll. And Trump’s late-campaign travel map includes stops in traditionally red states like Texas, Kansas, and Ohio, a sign that Republicans are playing defense.

As Trump takes the stage in Rock Hill, the stakes are clear: a strong showing could help Graham consolidate support, but the rally’s impact will ultimately be measured at the ballot box on November 3.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the Reuters/Ipsos poll. It was completed October 26, not October 28.