• President Trump reports “very good discussions” on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a deal potentially imminent.
  • Iran and Oman are negotiating a framework that would give Tehran control over inbound vessels and introduce new fees, but Supreme Leader approval remains uncertain.
  • Brent crude hovers above $83 a barrel as markets weigh the prospect of normalized oil flows.

Fragile Progress

Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are advancing, according to President Donald Trump, who said on Thursday that the deal is “moving along” following “very good discussions.” The comments come as Iranian lawmakers consider restrictions on US- and Israeli-linked ships, adding a layer of complexity to the talks.

Iran and Oman are reportedly discussing a framework that would give Tehran greater control over vessel entry, with Omani authorities handling the exit side. The arrangement would also introduce new security and service fees, according to people familiar with the matter. While the outlines of a deal are taking shape, approval from Iran’s Supreme Leader is still uncertain, and internal political dynamics could still derail the process.

Market Reaction

Brent crude rose above $83 a barrel on Thursday, reflecting cautious optimism that the vital energy route could soon reopen. The strait handles about 20% of global oil consumption, and any prolonged disruption has outsized effects on prices. Traders are closely monitoring the negotiations, with some analysts noting that a full reopening could add significant supply to the market, easing recent upward pressure.

“The market is pricing in a decent chance of success,” said one energy analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But the political hurdles are real, and we’ve seen talks stall before.”

Broader Implications

A successful deal would not only restore oil flows but could also restart broader US-Iran talks, which have been largely dormant since the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. The two countries have engaged in indirect diplomacy through Oman in recent months, but no formal negotiations are scheduled.

For now, the focus remains on the technical details of the proposed framework. Shipping sources say that if accepted, the new measures would be monitored by both Tehran and Muscat, with a joint commission to oversee compliance. However, until the Supreme Leader gives his stamp of approval, the deal remains tentative.

Efforts to reach Iranian and Omani officials for comment were unsuccessful. The White House declined to elaborate, with a spokesperson saying only that “negotiations are continuing.”

Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that the deal had been finalized. In fact, talks are still ongoing.