• President Trump says a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within 48 hours, citing progress in US-Iran talks.
  • Axios reports the US, Iran, and Oman are preparing a 60-day shipping agreement to restore transit through the key energy route.
  • Oil markets react cautiously, with Brent rebounding after Houthi threats, but traders remain wary of potential breakdowns.

A Fragile Window of Opportunity

President Trump indicated that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be signed within 48 hours, according to statements made during a press briefing on Thursday. "We're making great progress, and I think you'll see something happen very soon," Trump said, adding that talks with Iran are "going well." The remarks come as Axios reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are finalizing a 60-day shipping agreement designed to ensure safe passage through the strait, which handles about 20% of global oil consumption.

Oman has been serving as a key mediator, hosting back-channel negotiations over the past weeks. The proposed pact would temporarily guarantee unhindered transit for commercial vessels, with monitoring mechanisms overseen by Omani authorities. However, officials familiar with the matter caution that the deal is "provisional and fragile," and could unravel if either side perceives the other as violating terms.

Market Sentiment and Volatility

Oil markets have been whipsawed by the developments. Brent crude initially fell on hopes of a deal, but rebounded by 1.5% to $82.40 per barrel after Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened to target shipping if the agreement did not meet their demands. "The market is pricing in a reduced risk premium, but it's not celebrating just yet," said Sarah Johnson, an energy analyst at a London-based consultancy. "Any deal is temporary, and the underlying tensions remain."

Shipping and insurance costs have already begun to ease, with war-risk premiums dropping by 10% over the past two days, according to industry sources. However, some shipowners remain skeptical, noting that previous ceasefires and agreements have collapsed without warning. "We've seen this movie before," said Captain Andreas Mavridis, a Greek tanker operator. "We'll believe it when we see it."

Diplomatic Tightrope

Iran's position has been ambiguous. While foreign ministry officials have welcomed the talks, they have also reiterated demands for the lifting of sanctions and guarantees that Iran's oil exports will not be disrupted. "We are prepared to cooperate, but the United States must show good faith," said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh.

The Trump administration has not publicly commented on the specifics of the agreement, but a senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that "all options are on the table" if negotiations stall. The official added that the deal would be "time-limited" and subject to strict verification.

Risks and Implications

Even if a deal is signed, the underlying geopolitical frictions remain unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint for decades, with periodic threats and incidents. Analysts warn that without a broader framework addressing maritime security and sanctions relief, the risk of renewed escalation is high. "A 60-day arrangement is a stopgap, not a solution," said Michael Stephens, a geopolitical risk expert. "The fundamental distrust remains, and any minor incident could derail the whole process."

For global markets, the immediate impact is a calmer oil outlook, but traders are advised to stay alert. Energy-importing economies may see some relief on fuel costs, but insurance and shipping rates could spike again if the deal falls through. "This is a positive development, but it's not a game-changer," said Johnson. "We're still in a world where geopolitical risk is a constant factor."

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the duration of the proposed agreement as 60 days. It is actually a 60-day shipping agreement, as reported by Axios.