• President Trump claimed "historic flows of oil out of Hormuz" in the last three days, but shipping data indicates a rebound toward prewar levels rather than an all-time record.
  • Kpler estimates oil and petroleum-product flows through the strait at 13.1 million barrels per day last week, roughly 80% of the 17.1 million b/d seen before the U.S.-Iran war began February 28.
  • JPMorgan (JPM) puts total Middle East crude exports, including alternative routes, at about 17.5 million b/d, or 98% of prewar levels, though refined-product flows remain severely constrained.

A Logistical Recovery, Not Normalization

President Trump’s claim of “historic flows of oil out of Hormuz” in the last three days points to a sharp recent recovery in oil movements through the Strait of Hormuz. But the available data support a rebound toward prewar volumes—not a clearly verifiable all-time record.

Kpler estimated oil and petroleum-product flows through the strait at 13.1 million barrels per day last week, roughly 80% of the 17.1 million b/d seen before the conflict. JPMorgan separately estimated total Middle East crude exports, including alternative routes, at about 17.5 million b/d, or 98% of prewar levels.

The immediate story is a logistical recovery after months of disruption from the U.S.-Iran war that began February 28. Gulf producers have increased seaborne shipments through Hormuz, often using U.S. Navy-supported escorts, ships that are not publicly broadcasting AIS positions (“dark” transits), ship-to-ship transfers, and alternative pipeline and port routes.

“The renewed volume suggests Iran’s ability to control flows has diminished,” a Kpler commodity-research director told CNN, though Iran retains the capacity to attack, harass, or deter vessels. The reported 13.1 million b/d through Hormuz is a substantial improvement but remains below the prior 17.1 million b/d prewar benchmark cited by Kpler. This distinction matters: flows can surge on individual days, while a weekly average still reflects constrained conditions.

Saudi Arabia Pivotal, But Risks Persist

Saudi Arabia has been pivotal. Its crude exports recovered above 4 million b/d in September after disruptions to its East-West pipeline increased reliance on Hormuz. Reuters reported 22 tankers carrying about 42 million barrels of crude exited the strait in the week of September 13; Saudi Arabia and Iraq each accounted for 43% of that volume.

Visibility remains incomplete. Public vessel counts have been low at times because some tankers move with transponders switched off, so conventional ship-tracking data can understate physical flows.

The Strait of Hormuz is a globally important chokepoint: in 2025 it carried roughly 20 million b/d of crude and oil products, about one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Nearly 15 million b/d of the flow was crude, and most shipments went to Asia. China and India alone received 44% of the crude moving through the strait in 2025.

The recovery of crude volumes should not be confused with a return to full market normality. JPMorgan’s 98% figure refers to regional crude exports through Hormuz and alternative routes combined, not necessarily normal, transparent, safe navigation through the strait itself. JPMorgan estimates Middle East refined-product flows—such as gasoline and diesel—at only 58% of prewar levels, leaving diesel and other fuel markets especially tight.

Oil prices have remained elevated. CNN reported crude spent much of September above $100 a barrel amid persistent security risks and shrinking inventories. Diesel prices in the United States topped $6 per gallon, with fuel costs feeding through to consumer prices and logistics expenses.

Military Protection and Fragile Workarounds

The headline is inseparable from the U.S.-Iran confrontation and U.S. policy of supporting Gulf shipping. The recent increase in flows appears linked to American naval involvement and Gulf states’ efforts to demonstrate that Iran cannot indefinitely restrict a waterway essential to regional oil exports.

Iran’s leverage remains a factor. Hormuz is geographically adjacent to Iran, and threats to shipping have long given Tehran leverage in regional and international diplomacy. While the renewed volume suggests Iran’s ability to control flows has diminished, it retains the capacity to attack, harass, or deter vessels.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the few exporters with material routes that bypass Hormuz. The IEA estimates total alternative bypass capacity at only 3.5–5.5 million b/d, far below the strait’s normal throughput. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline earlier in September disrupted a major alternative route and helped push Saudi crude back toward Hormuz, demonstrating that diversions through the Red Sea are not risk-free either.

Freight, war-risk insurance, and fuel surcharges remain high. The shipping recovery depends on costly naval protection, opaque routing, and operational workarounds rather than normal commercial conditions.

What to Watch

Short term, higher crude throughput should moderate fears of an imminent supply collapse and may cap price spikes if the flow is sustained. But the operating model is fragile: it relies on military resources, elevated insurance costs, and routing practices that may be hard to scale or maintain.

Key downside risks include a new attack on tankers, ports, pipelines, or naval assets; reduced availability of military escorts; higher war-risk insurance or refusal by shipowners and crews to enter the area; a disruption to Saudi pipeline capacity or Red Sea export facilities; and a widening conflict that interrupts LNG from Qatar and the UAE.

Medium to long term, producers and customers will have greater incentive to diversify routes, build strategic inventories, secure long-term supply contracts, and invest in pipelines, storage, and non-Gulf supplies. Yet physical alternatives are constrained.

The central takeaway is that the increase in flows is economically meaningful and reduces near-term disruption risk, but it is not proof that the waterway has been normalized. As JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva cautioned, higher crossings reflect an industry adapting to sustained danger rather than an improvement in safety. The essential uncertainty is how long this costly system can keep supplying physical barrels before inventories, military capacity, or security conditions become binding constraints.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the week of the Reuters tanker exit report. It was the week of September 13, not September 6.