- Shipping analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily, far below normal levels.
- Crude flows remain at 3–5 million barrels per day, a fraction of the pre-conflict 20 million bpd.
- Saudi Aramco warns that replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months even with an immediate reopening.
Fragile Recovery
Despite optimistic statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," shipping analysts on the ground paint a far more cautious picture. Kpler data shows just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers. That's a far cry from the bustling waterway that typically sees dozens of vessels daily.
"We're seeing a trickle, not a flood," said one shipping analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The security situation remains tense, and charterers are reluctant to commit."
Waiting Game
Estimated crude flows through Hormuz are hovering around 3–5 million bpd, well below the pre-conflict level of about 20 million bpd. This shortfall has global markets on edge, as the strait handles roughly a fifth of the world's oil.
Saudi Aramco has cautioned that even if the strait reopens immediately, replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months. This timeline underscores the lingering supply-chain risks that could keep oil prices elevated.
Market Reactions
While Bessent has suggested a potential reopening, including possible escorts, analysts remain wary. "The political will may be there, but logistics and security are still unresolved," said another market observer. The market has priced in some recovery, but any setback in talks could quickly reverse gains.
Efforts to reach Bessent's office for comment were unsuccessful.
Clarification: This article has been updated to reflect the latest Kpler data.