U.S. Crude Oil Futures Surge 3.06% Amid Tight Supply and OPEC+ Uncertainty

• U.S. crude oil futures settle at $71.48 per barrel, up $2.12 (3.06%).
• Tight global supply and potential OPEC+ production adjustments drive the rally.
• EIA forecasts Brent crude to peak at $75 in Q3 2025 before declining.

Oil Prices Jump on Supply Concerns

U.S. crude oil futures climbed sharply on Tuesday, settling at $71.48 per barrel—a $2.12 (3.06%) gain—as markets reacted to tightening global supply and speculation around OPEC+ policy shifts. The rally comes amid falling production in Iran and Venezuela, which analysts expect to further deplete inventories in Q2 2025.

"The market is pricing in both near-term scarcity and longer-term uncertainty," said one trader familiar with energy derivatives, who requested anonymity due to company policy. "OPEC+'s next move is the wildcard."

Mixed Long-Term Outlook

While the EIA projects Brent crude could reach $75 by mid-2025, it anticipates downward pressure later that year as inventories rebuild and non-OPEC production grows. The agency’s 2026 forecast averages just $68 per barrel—a potential warning for bulls. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas markets remain volatile, with Henry Hub spot prices expected to average $4.20/MMBtu next year following winter-driven demand spikes.

Attempts to reach OPEC+ representatives for comment were unsuccessful. The group is reportedly debating whether to extend voluntary cuts beyond June.