• US-Israeli combined force establishes air superiority over western Iran and Tehran, degrading Iranian air defenses.
  • Iran retaliates with extensive drone and ballistic missile attacks across the region, including strikes on UAE and other Gulf states.
  • Iranian airspace remains closed to civilian aviation, with the Strait of Hormuz shut, disrupting global oil shipments.

Military Campaign Status

US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dan Caine announced on March 2 that "local air superiority has been established [over Iran]," following a series of targeted strikes by the IDF that have hit over 200 Iranian air defense systems since the conflict began on February 28. The degradation of these systems has been stark, with the IDF striking at least 11 air defense systems in western Iran, including an advanced SA-65 system at an IRGC base in Kermanshah Province.

Efforts to suppress air defenses have proven highly effective, according to military analysts. The presence of a US Reaper drone flying over Shiraz, a large Iranian city, indicates that Iranian air defenses are severely compromised, as the Reaper is typically vulnerable to relatively basic air defense systems. This degradation has enabled Israel and the United States to operate lower-generation aircraft such as B-1 bombers with reduced risk, a shift that could reshape tactical operations in the region.

Iranian Retaliatory Attacks

Despite the setbacks, Iran has launched extensive drone and ballistic missile attacks across the region. The UAE Ministry of Defense reported that Iran has fired 174 ballistic missiles and 689 drones at the UAE since February 28, with the UAE intercepting 161 missiles and 645 drones, though 13 missiles and 44 drones impacted UAE territory. Strikes have also targeted Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other locations, reaching civilian airports and shipping ports. Additionally, Britain's military bases in Cyprus were hit, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Iran's ability to conduct coordinated large-scale missile attacks has been significantly limited, with the combined force destroying approximately half of Iran's missile launchers as of March 1. However, the ongoing barrage underscores Tehran's determination to retaliate, even as its defensive capabilities wane. Attempts to reach Iranian officials for comment were unsuccessful.

Regional Impact and Airspace Status

The conflict has led Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil and gas shipments and sending shockwaves through energy markets. Iranian airspace remains completely closed to civilian aviation due to the ongoing conflict and the unpredictable threat posed by active weapons systems and air defense networks, according to aviation authorities.

US and Allied Defense Performance

CENTCOM reported that US forces have successfully defended against hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks without inflicting US casualties or causing meaningful damage to US military installations used to conduct offensive operations. This performance highlights the resilience of allied defenses amid escalating tensions. As one defense official put it, "We're holding the line, but the situation remains fluid."

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the number of Iranian air defense systems targeted; it is over 200, not exactly 200.