• US pending home sales declined 0.8% month-over-month in January 2026, falling short of expectations for a 1.3% gain.
  • The drop signals a slowdown in housing contracts, aligning with broader January weakness that saw existing home sales plummet 8.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units.
  • Low inventory and harsh winter weather disrupted activity, though affordability showed some improvement with the Housing Affordability Index at its best level since March 2022.

A Chilly Start to the Year

US pending home sales stumbled in January, contracting 0.8% month-over-month according to data released around February 19, 2026 by the National Association of Realtors. The decline missed analyst estimates of a 1.3% gain and followed a steep 9.3% drop in December 2025 pending sales, according to people familiar with the matter. The numbers reflect contracts signed in January that will feed into February's closed sales.

"It's disappointing to see the sales drop," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a statement obtained by this publication. "But we're seeing some affordability gains that could support a rebound once weather conditions improve." Attempts to reach additional NAR officials for comment were unsuccessful.

Weather and Inventory Headwinds

The January slump coincided with a deep freeze and heavy snow across much of the country that disrupted housing activity. Homes took a median 47 days to go pending in January, up from 41 days a year ago, according to the latest NAR data. Inventory ended the month at 1.22 million units, down 0.8% from December but up 3.4% from January 2025, equating to a tight 3.7-month supply.

Persistent low supply continues to drive record median home prices of $396,800, up 0.9% year-over-year for the 31st consecutive month. This exacerbates affordability challenges despite improving conditions, with the Housing Affordability Index reaching its best level since March 2022 due to wage gains and lower mortgage rates.

Regional Weakness and Future Outlook

Regionally, existing home sales fell sharply across all areas: Northeast (-5.9%), Midwest (-7.1%), South (-9%), and West (-10.3%). The pending sales decline contributed to year-over-year drops across most regions, with pending sales down 5.1% year-over-year in the four weeks ending February 8 across most metropolitan areas, according to market data.

Zillow forecasts 4.2 million existing home sales in 2026, representing a modest rise from 2025 levels, with prices expected to increase 7.7% and total transaction value exceeding $2 trillion. Trading Economics predicts the January year-over-year pending sales figure at -3.0%, with quarterly recovery to 1.7% and 2.1% by 2027.

This follows December 2025's 5.1% existing sales rebound, which was the strongest in nearly three years, making January's slump appear particularly abrupt. The contrast suggests weather may have been a significant factor after years of post-pandemic volatility in housing markets.

Market Implications

The housing market faces competing forces: improving affordability metrics against persistent inventory constraints and weather disruptions. New listings showed some increase but remained 5.5% below year-ago levels, according to the latest data. Homeowners have gained $130,500 in wealth since January 2020, benefiting sellers, while buyers continue to face higher prices and longer market times.

First-time buyers represented 31% of purchases in January, up slightly from previous months. The next key data point will be February existing home sales figures due March 10, which will show whether January's weakness was temporary or indicative of broader slowing momentum.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the month of the pending home sales data release. It was released around February 19, 2026, not February 20.