• Venezuela’s September crude exports dipped to 1.08 million bpd, but flows to the U.S. jumped to 629,000 bpd, representing 58% of total shipments.
  • Shipments to India and Europe weakened, concentrating Venezuela’s export exposure on U.S. policy and refinery demand.
  • Chevron (CVX)’s Venezuelan crude exports held nearly steady at 283,000 bpd, underscoring its role as a linchpin of lawful U.S.-bound flows.

A Shift Toward the U.S.

Venezuela’s crude exports slipped to 1.08 million barrels per day in September, a modest decline from August’s 1.17 million bpd. But the headline number masks a significant reorientation: shipments to the United States climbed to 629,000 bpd, up from roughly 553,000 bpd the prior month. That means nearly three out of every five barrels Venezuela exported last month went to U.S. shores. Meanwhile, flows to India fell to 253,000 bpd, and Europe received just 86,000 bpd—a stark narrowing of Venezuela’s customer base.

The shift comes as rising freight costs are squeezing the economics of Venezuelan crude. Shipping rates more than doubled from late August in some cases, according to traders, prompting Vitol and Trafigura to demand deeper price discounts from PDVSA. Those discounts eat into Venezuela’s realized revenues, even as volumes to the U.S. hold up.

Chevron, which operates joint ventures with state-owned PDVSA, exported about 283,000 bpd from Venezuela last month—essentially flat from August’s 286,000 bpd. The company’s steady performance highlights its outsized role in sustaining U.S.-bound flows, particularly as other buyers pull back. Chevron has said it intends to invest more than $7 billion to lift Venezuelan output to roughly 600,000 bpd by 2031, funded from cash generated by its joint ventures.

Power Grid Remains the Binding Constraint

Operational challenges continue to loom large. Venezuela’s deteriorated power system is running a deficit exceeding 1,500 MW, and only about 40% of installed capacity is available, according to a CAF official cited by Reuters. Industry executives view electricity reliability as the principal obstacle to expanding oil projects—restoring and automating the grid could require around $5 billion.

The power crisis is not just an industrial problem. Outages of up to 10 hours a day have disrupted schools, shops, and households, fueling public frustration. Expanding production in the Orinoco Belt, which requires additional electricity, could intensify that tension if the grid is not repaired first.

For U.S. Gulf Coast refiners, Venezuelan heavy sour crude remains a valuable feedstock, particularly as an alternative to Canadian barrels. But as freight and insurance costs rise, Canadian crude becomes more competitive, pressuring PDVSA’s pricing power. Chevron’s record U.S. refinery throughput of 1.07 million bpd in the second quarter—though companywide—illustrates why reliable supplies of appropriate grades matter commercially.

Policy and Market Crosscurrents

The U.S.–Venezuela relationship remains the decisive variable. Chevron’s operations depend on U.S. authorizations and negotiated arrangements with PDVSA, and the broader export mix is shaped by sanctions policy. Venezuela has moved toward a new energy framework aimed at drawing private capital, but investors remain wary of fiscal terms, regulation, and political continuity.

The concentration of exports toward the U.S. cuts both ways. It reduces available supply for non-U.S. refiners and makes Caracas more dependent on Washington’s stance. India, which has at times used Venezuelan heavy crude as an alternative supply source, saw its volumes drop to 253,000 bpd last month.

Chevron’s financial firepower provides some cushion. The company reported $18.1 billion in free cash flow for the second quarter and reduced total debt by $8.4 billion. Its planned Venezuelan expansion, if realized, could add meaningful capacity—but only if power is restored and equipment can be deployed at scale. For now, September’s export dip is a reminder that logistics and infrastructure, not geology, dictate Venezuela’s oil trajectory.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage of Venezuela’s September exports that went to the U.S. It is 58%, not 53%.