• Venezuela is set to export larger crude oil cargoes starting in March 2026, with a significant expansion to India driven by Indian refiners diversifying away from Russian oil amid US-backed trade deals and sanctions relief.
  • Indian state-run refiners BPCL and HMEL have made first-time or renewed purchases of Venezuelan Merey crude via trader Vitol, co-loaded on very large crude carriers to cut costs, boosting India's imports to at least 6 million barrels through April.
  • The surge follows a US policy shift in January 2026 that granted licenses for Venezuelan oil sales after a military operation ousted Nicolas Maduro, supporting US goals to weaken Russia's war funding and align India geopolitically through an interim trade deal.

Venezuela is preparing to ship larger crude oil cargoes beginning in March, with exports poised to expand significantly to India as Indian refiners pivot from Russian supplies, according to people familiar with the matter and shipping data. This move comes on the heels of a US policy reversal that has unlocked Venezuelan oil for global markets, fueling a strategic realignment in energy trade.

In recent weeks, Indian state-run Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) secured its first-ever purchase of 1 million barrels of Venezuelan Merey crude, while HPCL Mittal Energy (HMEL) bought 1 million barrels for the first time in two years, both deals facilitated by global trader Vitol. The cargoes were co-loaded on a very large crude carrier to achieve cost savings, a tactic that's boosting India's imports to at least 6 million barrels through April. Reliance Industries (RELIANCE.NS), previously a major buyer of Russian oil, also snapped up around 2 million barrels in early February, shortly after the US eased restrictions for non-US buyers.

"Efforts to restructure Venezuela's oil exports have gained momentum with these larger shipments," said one source, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the negotiations. "Without this deal, the country would struggle to ramp up revenue streams." The US granted licenses in January following a military operation that removed Nicolas Maduro from power, shifting control of Venezuelan oil sales and enabling traders like Vitol and Trafigura to market the crude under new agreements. Trafigura is reportedly targeting shipments to India and China for March and April, adding to the flurry of activity.

On the ground, the expansion is tied to broader economic factors. India's push to diversify away from Russian oil—a surge that followed the 2022 Ukraine invasion—is now supporting energy security and dovetailing with a US-India interim trade deal. Under the deal, announced by the Trump administration, US tariffs on Indian goods are set to drop to 18% effective April 2026, with the 25% levy removed if Russia purchases decline. This linkage has accelerated talks between US and Indian officials, with an envoy predicting "news soon" on volumes and timing. Venezuelan oil has historically traded at a discount of around $6.5 to $7 below the Dubai benchmark, making it an attractive alternative for cost-conscious refiners.

US refiners are also scaling up their intake, with Valero (VLO) expected to import up to 6.5 million barrels in March and Chevron (CVX) increasing its purchases, according to industry insiders. The parallel uptick underscores a global trend where traders are offering Venezuelan crude to key markets like India and China, countering Russia's war funding. Mangalore Refinery (MRPL) is exploring Venezuelan buys after halting Russian imports, signaling a broader shift among Indian players.

In a brief statement, a representative for Vitol declined to comment on specific deals but noted the firm's role in facilitating energy flows under licensed frameworks. Attempts to reach BPCL and HMEL for comment were unsuccessful. The human touch here is palpable: refiners are racing to secure supply chains amid geopolitical flux, with shipping data revealing a steady stream of vessels being chartered for the coming months.

Looking ahead, short-term projections indicate India's imports will continue rising through April, supported by the US-India deal expected to formalize in late February or early March. Long-term, ongoing US licenses could sustain exports, with experts noting a strategic energy shift that may see India fully diversify if tariff cuts materialize. No conflicting predictions have emerged, but the pace of negotiations remains fluid. Corrections: An earlier version misstated the timing of HMEL's last purchase; it was two years ago, not in 2024. The article has been updated to reflect this.