• Wells Fargo (WFC) Investment Institute raised its 2027 WTI target to $75–$85 per barrel and Brent to $80–$90, citing prolonged supply disruptions and depleted inventories.
  • The call is notably more bullish than the U.S. EIA’s central 2027 Brent forecast of roughly $74 per barrel.
  • The bank expects prices to ease from recent highs but remain structurally elevated through 2027 as Middle East output and shipping normalize slowly.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute has raised its 2027 crude-oil targets, projecting that persistent supply risks and low global inventories will keep prices structurally elevated even as they retreat from recent peaks. In a note to clients, the bank set a 2027 target range of $75–$85 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate and $80–$90 for Brent. That’s a markedly more bullish view than the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s central forecast, which sees Brent averaging around $74 per barrel in 2027.

The revised targets come amid ongoing disruptions to Middle East production and exports, particularly flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA estimates that global inventories have already fallen by about 400 million barrels in 2026 and expects them to continue declining through year-end. “The combination of low inventories and constrained transport is a recipe for sustained price support,” said a person familiar with the institute’s thinking, who asked not to be identified discussing internal deliberations.

Wells Fargo’s thesis doesn’t assume prices will stay at current peak levels indefinitely. Instead, it envisions a gradual decline from recent highs, with supply-risk premiums, low stocks, and the time needed to rebuild inventories providing a higher floor for prices in 2027. The International Energy Agency’s September assessment points to an unusually tight near-term market: it projects world oil supply to decline by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, with the expected recovery in Gulf supply delayed into 2027.

Official forecasters see a different path. The EIA expects rising Middle East supply and rebuilding inventories to bring Brent down gradually to an average near $74 per barrel in 2027, though it emphasizes substantial uncertainty around shipping routes and the conflict. OPEC’s September outlook is more bullish on demand recovery, estimating 2027 demand growth of roughly 2.36 million barrels per day after reducing its 2026 growth outlook to about 380,000 barrels per day.

The forecast is inseparable from geopolitical risk. The Strait of Hormuz, a key oil-transit chokepoint, carried nearly 20% of global oil supply before the military action that disrupted the route, according to the EIA. A de-escalation or durable reopening of shipping routes could erode the risk premium faster than Wells Fargo assumes. Conversely, further disruption or weaker-than-expected supply recovery could validate the bank’s upper-end price ranges.

Higher crude prices generally lift gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, freight, petrochemical, and heating costs, raising headline inflation and complicating central-bank efforts to reduce interest rates. They also reduce household disposable income and pressure margins for airlines, shipping firms, trucking operators, manufacturers, and retailers. For the United States, domestic production moderates the macroeconomic hit relative to oil-import-dependent countries, but U.S. consumers and many businesses still pay prices linked to global crude benchmarks.

Wells Fargo’s oil forecast is an investment-research view from Wells Fargo Investment Institute, not a statement that Wells Fargo itself is a major oil producer or is materially changing its operating strategy because of oil prices. The bank reported approximately $2.3 trillion in assets as of its second-quarter 2026 results, with net income of $6.4 billion, or $2.00 diluted EPS, compared with $5.5 billion a year earlier. Revenue rose 9% year over year, net interest income increased 5%, and noninterest income increased 13%.

This leadership change follows a multiyear effort to resolve Wells Fargo’s risk-management and regulatory issues after the 2016 fake-accounts scandal. Its former Federal Reserve asset-growth restriction was removed in 2025, allowing renewed balance-sheet expansion. Charlie Scharf remains chairman and CEO, with Michael Santomassimo as CFO, Scott Powell as COO, and Derek Flowers as chief risk officer. Flowers plans to retire in mid-January 2027, with Powell scheduled to become chief risk officer and the bank set to name a new COO.

Wells Fargo’s own published market commentary contains a partially offsetting view: it has said prices could decline through late 2026 and by end-2027 as war-related risk premiums fade and major producers raise output. The new higher target range suggests it now assigns greater weight to the possibility that disruptions and low stocks linger longer than previously expected. A spokesperson for Wells Fargo Investment Institute declined to comment beyond the published note.

Correction: A previous version of this article misstated the EIA’s 2027 Brent forecast. It is approximately $74 per barrel, not $69.39.