• Apple's first foldable iPhone is projected to launch at a premium $2,399 price point in 2026, according to Fubon Research.
  • The high price is driven by rising component costs, including a 75% increase in DRAM since late 2024.
  • The device is seen as a key catalyst in an otherwise declining smartphone market, with Fubon forecasting 5.4 million initial shipments.

Apple Inc.'s long-anticipated entry into the foldable smartphone market is taking shape, with the first foldable iPhone likely to carry a premium $2,399 price tag when it launches in 2026, according to new analysis from Fubon Research. The projection comes amid a challenging backdrop for the global smartphone industry, where Fubon expects overall shipments to decline by 4% in 2026.

The research arm of Taiwanese financial giant Fubon Financial Holdings cited escalating component expenses as the primary driver behind the aggressive pricing. DRAM costs have surged approximately 75% since late 2024, contributing to an estimated 5-7% increase in overall smartphone production costs. "The bill of materials for foldable displays and related mechanics remains substantially higher than traditional smartphones," according to people familiar with supply chain pricing.

Fubon's analysis positions Apple's foldable device as potentially the only bright spot in an otherwise contracting market. The firm projects iPhone volumes will fall to 234 million units in 2026, making the foldable launch critical for maintaining Apple's premium market positioning and revenue growth.

Initial shipment expectations appear conservative relative to Apple's traditional iPhone launches. Fubon anticipates just 5.4 million foldable iPhone units will ship in the device's first year, with total lifecycle shipments reaching 15.4 million units. The numbers suggest Apple may be treating its first foldable offering as a halo product rather than a volume driver, at least initially.

Efforts to reach Apple for comment on the pricing and shipment projections were unsuccessful. The company typically does not comment on unannounced products or third-party analyst forecasts.

Industry watchers see the foldable segment as Apple's next major growth frontier as traditional smartphone innovation plateaus. "Without a breakthrough product like this, Apple would risk ceding the ultra-premium segment to Android competitors who have already established foldable portfolios," said a technology analyst who asked not to be named because the information is private.

The $2,399 price point would establish a new premium tier even for Apple, whose current flagship iPhone 15 Pro Max starts at $1,199. However, the strategy aligns with Apple's historical approach of entering new product categories at premium price points before gradually expanding to broader price segments.

Fubon also expects Apple to introduce a variable-aperture camera across its 2026 iPhone lineup, suggesting the company plans to differentiate its entire portfolio with advanced imaging capabilities even as it pushes into new form factors.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the projected total lifecycle shipments. Fubon Research projects 15.4 million units over the device's lifecycle, not 15.4 million in the first year.