• Thomas Kaplan, chairman of NovaGold Resources (NG), predicts gold will surge to "tens of thousands of dollars" long-term, dismissing recent price declines as temporary volatility.
  • Kaplan views gold as a currency immune to debasement, arguing central bank monetary expansion and systemic debt accumulation will drive demand.
  • The Donlin Gold project in Alaska, where NovaGold holds a 60% stake, is positioned as a major investment opportunity, with John Paulson's firm acquiring the remaining 40% for $800 million.

Gold's recent pullback—a 10% decline in gold and over 30% drop in silver following speculation about Federal Reserve leadership—has done little to shake the conviction of billionaire investor Thomas Kaplan. In an interview, the chairman of NovaGold Resources expressed what he called "metaphysical certitude" that the precious metal is poised for a historic rally, potentially reaching "tens of thousands of dollars" over the coming decade or longer. He attributed the selloff to short-term profit-taking rather than any fundamental shift, emphasizing that gold's role as a hedge against currency devaluation remains more critical than ever.

"Gold is a currency that can't be debased at will," Kaplan said, distinguishing it from traditional commodities and fiat currencies. He pointed to what he described as "the chickens coming home to roost" regarding global debt and monetary policies, noting that reasons to own gold and silver are now "10 times what they were in 2007." This long-term perspective echoes his earlier predictions from 2007, when many considered him "loopy" for forecasting gold at $3,000 to $5,000 per ounce—a target it has since surpassed. Kaplan expects gold's trajectory to mirror the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has roughly 30-folded over the past 40 years, driven by structural economic pressures.

Behind Kaplan's outlook lies a broader economic context marked by systemic debt accumulation and central bank expansion. According to people familiar with the matter, private credit market risks are also in focus, with Moody's flagging approximately $300 billion in bank exposure to unregulated lending to risky borrowers—a concern that parallels pre-2008 mortgage-backed securities issues. These factors, Kaplan argued, support a sustained rally, with Bank of America analysts predicting gold could hit $5,000 per ounce by 2026 and Wells Fargo Investment Institute raising its year-end 2026 target to $6,100 to $6,300 per ounce. AI-driven analysis even suggests a breakout above $10,000 per ounce by April if current trends hold.

Kaplan's investment thesis is closely tied to NovaGold Resources, where he serves as chairman. The company holds a 60% stake in the Donlin Gold project in Alaska, which Kaplan described as "the fattest pitch I've ever seen," referencing Warren Buffett's baseball philosophy. Veteran investor John Paulson's firm acquired the remaining 40% for $800 million, signaling strong institutional confidence. Kaplan, who also founded and serves as chief investment officer of The Electrum Group, an investment firm focused on natural resources, views Donlin as poised to become "one of the biggest wins of [his] generation in precious metals," positioning it as the largest gold mine in the United States.

Efforts to reach NovaGold for additional comments on the recent market volatility were unsuccessful, but sources indicate that the company remains focused on long-term development. As gold trades below $4,000 per ounce amid the correction, Kaplan's stance underscores a divide between short-term traders and structural believers. With currency debasement and high global debt continuing to shape financial landscapes, his prediction for tens of thousands of dollars may yet find its footing—if patience prevails.