• Bank of America (BAC) forecasts gold potentially reaching $6,000 per ounce within 12 months, driven by Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and structural demand.
  • Silver is expected to hit $65/oz by 2026, with potential for higher percentage gains due to industrial demand and supply constraints.
  • Gold has gained a record 60.12% year-to-date as of December 2025, yet institutional portfolios remain underweight, suggesting room for further inflows.

Bank of America strategists have issued one of the most aggressive institutional forecasts in recent history, projecting gold could surge to $6,000 per ounce in the near term. The bank's base case targets $5,000 by 2026, with prices potentially averaging $4,538 throughout that year, according to people familiar with the matter. Currently, gold futures are up 0.6% at $5,208/oz, while silver rises 3.6% to $91.31/oz, reflecting ongoing momentum in precious metals markets.

Efforts to navigate monetary policy uncertainty have hit a snag as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice in 2026, historically boosting gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Concerns over Federal Reserve independence and credibility are intensifying institutional safe-haven allocations, with exchange-traded funds and gold-backed products seeing demand reach 221 tonnes in Q3 2025, a 134% increase from the same quarter in 2024. Without sustained demand, prices might face headwinds, but analysts view any pullbacks as part of a long-term structural uptrend.

Central banks purchased 220 tonnes of gold in Q3 2025, representing a 28% increase from Q2 2025 levels, providing a robust price floor amid shifting geopolitical landscapes. This structural demand reflects global reserve diversification, with nearly 36% of Goldman Sachs (GS)' investor clients and analysts at UBS (UBS) also believing gold will reach $5,000 in 2026, according to sources. J.P. Morgan (JPM) Global Research similarly forecasts prices averaging $5,055/oz by the final quarter of 2026, potentially rising toward $5,400/oz by end of 2027.

Silver faces more near-term risks but could rebound above $100/oz, with Bank of America expecting it to reach $65 per ounce by 2026. Tightening supply and growing industrial demand from solar cells, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and AI data center infrastructure are driving this outlook. Meanwhile, gold production among North American precious metals stocks is forecast to decline 2% in 2026 to 19.2 million ounces, while all-in sustaining costs are expected to rise 3% year-on-year to approximately $1,600 per ounce, adding to supply-side pressures.

Rising government deficits worldwide and record debt-to-GDP levels are creating demand for real-asset hedging, as gold historically performs best when confidence in fiat currencies declines. Federal Reserve independence concerns and sovereign debt expansion are driving renewed institutional allocations toward gold, with HSBC (HSBC) forecasting gold at $4,600–$5,000 by 2026 and Société Générale (GLE) expecting prices north of $4,500 if deficits persist. Attempts to reach Bank of America for further comment were unsuccessful, but market participants note that even modest pullbacks are viewed as part of a bullish cycle rather than a reversal.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the year-to-date gain for gold; it is 60.12% as of December 2025, not 2024.