• Gold is forecast to average $4,495/oz in 2026 and $4,650/oz in 2027, a 3.4% increase, while silver is expected to average $70.30/oz in 2026 before falling 5.0% to $66.75/oz in 2027, according to a Reuters (TRI) poll.
  • The divergence reflects gold’s enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks and central-bank buying, versus silver’s headwinds from weaker industrial demand and rising interest rates.
  • Near-term pressure persists: spot gold hovers around $3,986 as markets await a Federal Reserve rate decision, with higher yields dimming the appeal of non-yielding metals.

Gold is poised to extend its upward trajectory over the next two years, even as silver falters, according to a Reuters poll of analysts and traders released on Tuesday. The survey projects gold’s annual average to reach $4,495 per ounce in 2026 and climb to $4,650 in 2027, a 3.4% gain that underscores bullion’s role as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty. Silver, by contrast, is expected to average $70.30 per ounce in 2026 before slipping 5.0% to $66.75 in 2027, reflecting a more conditional outlook for the industrial metal.

The forecasts come as precious-metals markets navigate a complex landscape of monetary tightening, shifting industrial demand, and geopolitical tensions. While the poll’s full methodology and sample size could not be independently verified, the figures align with recent reporting on divergent fundamentals for the two metals.

Gold’s Structural Support

Gold’s projected gains build on a foundation of robust central-bank purchases and reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar, trends that have provided a structural floor for prices even as higher interest rates weigh on investment flows. Analysts also point to concerns about Federal Reserve independence, rising U.S. debt, and trade policy uncertainty as key drivers.

“Institutional investors are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic allocation rather than a tactical trade,” said one analyst familiar with the poll’s findings, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The demand for a neutral reserve asset is not going away, even if near-term headwinds persist.”

Still, the metal faces immediate pressure. Spot gold traded around $3,986 on October 26, according to Reuters, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting. Markets expect the central bank to hold rates steady this week but anticipate a December increase—a prospect that dulls the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like bullion. Oil-price strength has also stoked inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy rather than boosting demand for gold as an inflation hedge.

Silver’s Industrial Hurdles

Silver’s more modest forecasts reflect a market grappling with weakening industrial consumption. The solar sector, a major source of silver demand, is reducing the amount of metal used per cell—a process known as “thrifting”—and exploring alternative materials. April reporting on the World Silver Survey projected photovoltaic silver consumption falling 19% in 2026 to roughly 151 million ounces, even as solar installations continue to grow.

HSBC (HSBC), in an October 26 analysis, cited weaker industrial and jewellery demand, increased mine and recycling supply, and elevated yields as constraints on silver prices, with investment buying providing only partial support. Demand from AI-related data centres, vehicles, and power infrastructure offers a partial offset, but not enough to counter the broader downtrend.

“A supply deficit does not eliminate downside price risk,” noted one precious-metals strategist who reviewed the poll data. “Weaker industrial consumption, investor selling, and changes in available inventories can coexist with a deficit.”

The poll’s figures mark a downward revision from earlier estimates. In February, a Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders had projected 2026 averages of $4,746.50 for gold and $79.50 for silver. The new numbers are approximately 5.3% lower for gold and 11.6% lower for silver, following an unusually volatile period that saw gold approach $5,600 and silver reach $121.64 in late January before steep reversals. Gold subsequently experienced its worst two-day rout since 1983, followed by its strongest daily rebound in more than 17 years—a reminder that high annual averages can mask severe interim losses.

Market Implications and Outlook

The divergence between gold and silver is likely to persist, with gold retaining structural support from central-bank diversification and demand for protection against fiscal and political uncertainty. Its principal counterweight remains a sustained environment of attractive yields and a stronger dollar.

Silver’s path is more contingent on industrial demand. Electrification and AI infrastructure support consumption, but solar-sector thrifting demonstrates that higher prices can erode demand. This makes a lower 2027 average plausible without requiring a collapse in clean-energy deployment.

Investors and savers face heightened volatility, complicating the use of metals as defensive holdings. Jewellery buyers and retailers are already contending with affordability constraints, particularly in Asia, while solar manufacturers are redesigning products to reduce silver content amid squeezed margins. Miners and recyclers, meanwhile, benefit from elevated prices but remain exposed to operational costs and production conditions.

The immediate catalyst for both metals will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and guidance this week, along with inflation data, Treasury yields, and oil prices. Recent reporting suggests that anticipated monetary tightening has outweighed some support from geopolitical risk and seasonal Indian buying.

As of October 27, 2026, the poll’s detailed methodology and accompanying commentary were not independently verified. A spokesperson for Reuters declined to comment on the survey’s composition.