• Verified Strait of Hormuz crossings rose to 25 on June 18, signaling a cautious recovery in maritime activity.
  • Five sanctioned vessels were recorded, and no new attacks have been confirmed since May 10, but dark/silent movements persist.
  • The US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) under discussion could reshape risk perceptions, but unresolved details keep shipowners wary.

Tentative Recovery, Lingering Risks

The Strait of Hormuz saw a notable uptick in verified crossings on June 18, with traffic flowing in both directions, according to people familiar with maritime tracking data. The 25 crossings mark a recovery from recent lows, though several vessels remained dark or silent, indicating ongoing evasion tactics. Shipowners, still on edge after months of heightened tensions, are navigating a complex environment where risk premiums and insurance costs remain elevated.

“Traffic is picking up, but we’re not seeing a full normalization,” one shipping executive said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The MoU is promising, but without concrete implementation, we’re still operating in uncertainty.”

MoU Progress and Market Implications

The US-Iran memorandum under negotiation envisions reopening the strait and easing certain sanctions in exchange for safer passage guarantees. If finalized, the deal could significantly reduce war-risk premiums and boost energy flows, but talks remain fragile. “We’re watching the details closely,” an insurance market analyst noted. “Any agreement would need robust verification to change underwriting standards.”

Market participants are pricing in a cautious optimism. Global oil benchmarks have shown mixed reactions, with the partial rebound in traffic not yet translating into lower spot prices due to lingering geopolitical risk. Shippers and insurers are also monitoring continued dark activity, including AIS spoofing and use of staging hubs like Chabahar, which suggest evasion networks remain operational.

A Wait-and-See Approach

For now, the recovery remains tentative. “Shipowners are dipping their toes back in, but they’re not diving in,” said a Gulf-based broker. The MoU’s fate will be crucial: a credible, enforceable pact could pave the way for sustained normalization, while any breakdown risks a return to the tense standoffs seen earlier this year. As negotiations continue, stakeholders are bracing for volatility.