• Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to an average of 40 crossings per day, according to Kpler, after recent attacks disrupted transit.
  • The strategic question of who controls passage persists: Iran asserts authority, while the U.S. maintains that no country can block navigation.
  • The recovery remains fragile, with industry officials warning that normalization could take weeks to months.

Fragile Resumption

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has begun to rebound, averaging around 40 vessel crossings per day, according to data from Kpler. This follows a period of disruption triggered by recent attacks that raised concerns over the security of the critical waterway. However, the recovery is uneven and fragile, with authorities and industry officials cautioning that a full return to normalcy could take weeks or even months, depending on security conditions and corridor reliability.

Who Controls the Strait?

The issue of who controls passage through the strait remains a point of contention. Iran claims authority over the waterway, while the U.S. insists that no single country has the right to restrict navigation. This geopolitical tension continues to shape the risk environment for shippers and insurers, contributing to policy ambiguity that affects corridor access and insurance premiums.

Implications for Global Energy

Given that the Strait of Hormuz handles about a third of the world's seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas, even a partial disruption can ripple through global energy markets. Shipping costs, insurance premiums, and transit times have all been affected, with some operators rerouting or slowing their schedules to bolster security. The current pace of 40 crossings per day is well below the pre-disruption average of 120 to 140 vessels, illustrating the scale of the challenge.

Outlook

In the short term, analysts expect a cautious and phased resumption of normal traffic levels, with continued volatility in insurance costs and routing decisions. Medium-term recovery will depend on whether security guarantees improve and maritime corridors stabilize. Structural shifts in risk pricing and routing may persist even after traffic returns to pre-crisis levels.

"We're seeing a gradual recovery, but it's too early to declare the crisis over," said a shipping industry executive familiar with the situation, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The underlying tensions haven't gone away."

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the average daily vessel crossings. The correct figure is 40.