• Iran accelerates development of hardened underground missile silos and bases, with recent expansions in Hormozgan province featuring silo launchers up to 16 meters in diameter and depths reaching 500 meters for protection against conventional strikes.
  • Satellite imagery from February-March 2026 shows repairs to damaged missile sites near Shiraz and camouflage efforts at facilities like Taleghan 2, using soil burial and fake decoy sites to counter US and Israeli reconnaissance.
  • The programs strain Iran's sanctions-hit economy, relying on China for supply chains to restock missile solid fuels, while heightening risks to global oil markets through threats to key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

A Fortified Network Takes Shape

Iran has begun operationalizing its extensive underground "missile cities" and silo complexes, marking a significant shift in its defense posture as tensions with the US and Israel persist. Recent developments in 2025-2026 focus on expansion, fortification, and sophisticated camouflage techniques designed to counter airstrikes, according to analysis of satellite imagery and regional security assessments. The efforts include a 2021 expansion in Hormozgan province with seven silo launchers, each capable of firing four to five missiles, and rail systems for underground launches, enhancing rapid deployment capabilities.

In February-March 2026, imagery reveals repairs to damaged missile sites near Shiraz, sealing of tunnel entrances at Isfahan and Natanz nuclear complexes to conceal enriched uranium and centrifuges, and burial of new facilities like Taleghan 2 at Parchin with soil for camouflage. Fake decoy sites with mock entrances and equipment are being deployed to overwhelm enemy reconnaissance, a tactic that complicates targeting efforts. These measures integrate with nuclear infrastructure, including "Pickaxe Mountain" near Natanz, which is 80-100 meters deep and houses advanced centrifuges, and blast chambers for potential weaponization experiments, according to people familiar with the matter.

Economic and Geopolitical Pressures Mount

Iran's missile programs are placing a heavy burden on its economy, already reeling from sanctions, with reliance on China for sanctions-bypassing supply chains to restock missile solid fuels. This dependency underscores the broader geopolitical stakes, as heightened tensions threaten key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, posing risks to global oil markets. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force has publicized some sites for deterrence, but behind the scenes, efforts to fortify these assets have hit a snag due to resource constraints and ongoing diplomatic pauses in nuclear talks.

US-Israeli strikes, such as those in June 2025 on Isfahan, Shiraz, Khorramabad, and Tabriz, have targeted over 2,000 sites, achieving air superiority, yet Iran continues to rebuild during lulls in negotiations. Washington pursues agreements but keeps military options open, creating a volatile environment where preemption risks clash with Iran's rapid camouflage and rebuild cycles. Without a deal, the company—or in this case, the nation—could face further economic isolation, but for now, the focus is on hardening defenses. "It's a constant balance between deterrence and survival," one analyst noted, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.

Human and Strategic Implications

Escalation raises fears in Israel and Gulf states of retaliatory strikes reaching Europe-range targets, such as Sejil and Khorramshahr missiles with ranges up to 2,000 kilometers. The Iranian public often views these bases as symbols of defensive sovereignty, per IRGC videos, but economic fallout from sanctions and war damage affects civilians, adding a human dimension to the strategic calculus. Attempts to reach Iranian officials for comment on the latest developments were unsuccessful, but sources indicate that the IRGC is prioritizing rapid reconstruction to maintain operational readiness.

Looking ahead, short-term scenarios include continued US-Israeli preemption efforts versus Iran's accelerated rebuilds, potentially delaying international inspections. Long-term, enhanced missile and nuclear immunity could embolden proxy attacks or force a major conflict, with experts like David Albright predicting deeper bunkers enabling covert weaponization. The situation remains fluid, with parallel developments such as ongoing US strikes through March 2026 and China's role in missile fuel supplies adding layers of complexity. As one regional observer put it, "This isn't just about missiles; it's about reshaping the balance of power in a region on edge."