• Oracle (ORCL) has invoked force majeure on its Project Jupiter data center in New Mexico, aiming to shield itself from payments if regulatory and infrastructure setbacks delay the 2.45-GW facility beyond 2028.
  • The roughly $18 billion project loan is trading at 89-91 cents on the dollar, signaling heightened investor concern over execution risks.
  • The move underscores the financing challenges facing the AI infrastructure boom, even as Oracle's cloud demand surges.

Oracle's Preemptive Strike

Oracle has invoked force majeure on Project Jupiter, a massive AI data center campus in Doña Ana County, New Mexico, according to people familiar with the matter. The move is designed to protect the company from financial obligations if regulatory, power, or other uncontrollable disruptions delay the 2.45-gigawatt facility beyond 2028. The project is a key component of the Stargate AI infrastructure program, a joint effort involving OpenAI, SoftBank (9984.T), and Oracle that was announced at the White House in January 2025 with pledges of up to $500 billion in U.S. AI investment.

The force majeure invocation comes as the project's approximately $18 billion construction financing has become difficult for arranging banks—including Santander (SAN) and Jefferies (JEF)—to syndicate to other investors. The loans are currently quoted at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar, according to market participants, representing a 9-11% discount to face value. That discount signals that credit investors are demanding a higher return to compensate for perceived risks, rather than indicating an imminent payment default. Oracle has not missed any payments, and the project has not been cancelled.

"This is a risk-allocation step, not evidence of a loan default," said one person with knowledge of the situation. "Oracle is trying to protect itself from delays that are outside its control."

A Test Case for AI Infrastructure

Project Jupiter is one of the largest data center projects in the Stargate portfolio, spanning roughly 1,400 acres and designed to supply computing capacity for AI training and inference workloads. But the project faces a complex web of permitting and infrastructure challenges. The New Mexico Supreme Court recently allowed paused air-quality and water-permitting processes to resume, rejecting procedural challenges from environmental groups. While that removes an immediate legal freeze, it does not grant the necessary permits or resolve the underlying environmental dispute.

Oracle has said the primary campus construction permits remain valid and that the physical data center campus does not require the contested air permit. The company also replaced an earlier conventional gas-plant concept with an onsite fuel-cell approach involving Bloom Energy (BE), arguing it would reduce water use and protect local air quality. However, the microgrid still needs regulatory review, and critics argue that gas-fueled generation would create significant emissions. The proposed Green Chile pipeline, which would supply gas to the site, has been delayed until at least early 2027, adding schedule risk.

"What institutional investors like us are really focused on is regulatory stability," said Andrea Valeri, Blackstone (BX)'s country chairman for Italy, speaking generally about infrastructure investments. "Italy in this regard has been on a very steady growth trajectory." His comments, made at a Bloomberg conference in Milan, underscore the importance of predictable regulation for large-scale projects.

Financial Pressures Mount

Oracle's broader financial picture illustrates the tension between soaring demand and the capital required to meet it. In its latest quarter, Oracle reported revenue of $19.3 billion, up 30% year over year, with its cloud infrastructure unit growing 121% to $7.4 billion. Remaining performance obligations—a measure of contracted future revenue—stood at $664 billion after the company signed more than $30 billion in additional AI cloud contracts during the quarter.

But the company's investment burden is enormous. Oracle spent about $28 billion in capital expenditures in the quarter and expects $90-95 billion in gross capex for the full fiscal year. Free cash flow was negative by roughly $5 billion, even as operating cash flow benefited from customer prepayments. The Project Jupiter financing discount suggests that credit investors are less willing than equity or technology customers to assume the buildout risk.

"We have a constant balance with the banks, which really we consider our partners and not only our binary competitors," said Cecile Mayer-Levi, head of private debt at Tikehau Capital (TKKHF), speaking about the Italian market. "It's much more of a convergence between the two solutions." Her comments highlight the collaborative approach needed to finance large infrastructure projects.

Local and Political Stakes

The project has drawn attention from local residents and environmental groups concerned about water availability, air quality, and transparency in permitting. Environmental advocates have publicly criticized the proposed gas-related infrastructure and its projected emissions. The political stakes are high because AI infrastructure has become both an economic-development issue and a national-competitiveness priority.

"It's a great country to invest here because there are a lot of very good companies and the market here is not as competitive as other markets," said Giampiero Mazza, head of Italy at CVC Capital Partners (CVC.AS), referring to Italy. "You can create your own ideas." His words resonate with the U.S. context, where AI infrastructure is attracting massive investment but also facing local pushback.

Oracle's leadership has undergone significant changes. Larry Ellison remains executive chair and chief technology officer; Safra Catz moved from CEO to executive vice chair; and Clayton Magouyrk became CEO in September 2025. The company is attempting a capital-intensive transition from traditional enterprise software toward hyperscale cloud and AI-compute capacity.

What's Next

In the near term, the decisive issues are permit outcomes, the final onsite-power configuration, pipeline and interconnection schedules, and the practical meaning of Oracle's force-majeure notice in its contracts. Oracle may continue campus construction where existing permits allow, but operating a 2.45-GW facility depends on resolving the power and regulatory pieces. The loan market will likely remain sensitive to reports on schedule, costs, and the credit quality of end users such as OpenAI.

Long term, two broad outcomes are plausible. Execution could succeed: permits and power arrangements are resolved, capacity comes online with a manageable delay, and Oracle's contracted backlog translates into revenue. That would validate the high-capex strategy and support further AI-infrastructure financing. Alternatively, delays could compound: regulatory, power, or funding setbacks push completion materially beyond 2028, increasing carrying costs, pressuring lenders, and forcing revised terms or a shift of workload to other Stargate locations.

The market is effectively pricing a middle view: AI-cloud demand is demonstrably strong, but investors are questioning whether the industry can build, power, and finance the promised capacity at the pace implied by the contracts. Oracle's $664 billion RPO provides a powerful demand signal; its $90-95 billion capex outlook and negative free cash flow highlight the scale of the execution and financing burden.

Oracle did not respond to a request for comment. This article was updated to clarify that the force majeure invocation does not indicate a loan default. A previous version misstated the project's completion timeline.