• Piper Sandler economist Nancy Lazar argues widespread concerns about a weakening U.S. economy are overstated, pointing to resilient consumer spending.
  • Lazar forecasts a revival in hiring, with job growth expected to pick up by the second quarter of 2026, citing early signs of improvement.
  • The firm's outlook hinges on the historical pattern where strong consumer confidence and spending help revive job markets after slowdowns.

A prominent voice from the investment banking sector is pushing back against the prevailing narrative of economic fragility. Nancy Lazar, a senior economist at Piper Sandler, contends that the market is underestimating the underlying strength of the U.S. economy, with consumer behavior providing the clearest signal.

"Concerns about a weakening U.S. economy are overstated," Lazar said, according to the firm's latest analysis. She specifically highlighted robust spending during the recent holiday and back-to-school shopping seasons as concrete evidence that consumer confidence has not cracked. This sustained spending power, she argues, is a critical buffer against broader slowdowns.

The Minneapolis-based firm, a top-tier advisor in U.S. mergers and acquisitions, bases this optimistic call on a historical playbook. In past cycles, solid consumer spending has consistently acted as a catalyst for job market recovery following periods of softness. With corporate profits remaining strong, the logic follows that businesses will soon resume hiring to meet sustained demand.

Lazar's model points to a tangible turnaround on the horizon. She expects hiring to accelerate by the second quarter of 2026, a forecast that aligns with the firm's integrated view of advisory services and macroeconomic research. Notably, she suggests the seeds of this recovery are already being sown, with early, if scattered, signs of job growth beginning to appear in recent data.

This contrarian stance from Piper Sandler arrives as the firm itself has been expanding its analytical and advisory footprint through strategic acquisitions, including Cornerstone Macro in 2022 and Aviditi Advisors earlier this year. The outlook suggests a belief that the domestic economy is on a steadier trajectory than daily market gyrations might imply, setting the stage for a phased recovery led by the very consumers many are worried about.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of Piper Sandler's acquisition of Aviditi Advisors. It was completed in 2024, not 2023.