• Soybean exports from the Port of Los Angeles to China fell nearly 15% year-over-year through September 2025, with no improvement following a November trade agreement.
  • China has shifted sourcing to Latin America, investing billions in port infrastructure there, creating long-term competitive challenges for U.S. exports.
  • The decline impacts U.S. jobs and trade flows, with China's share of Port of LA business dropping from about 60% before 2018 to around 40%.

Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said exports to China look "very soft," with soybeans hardest hit by retaliatory tariffs. Despite discussions between U.S. and Chinese representatives at the APEC summit in November 2025, exports did not improve in November or December, according to Seroka. The port, the largest container port in the Western Hemisphere, saw soybean exports fall nearly 15% from September 2024 to September 2025, though the steepest declines—up to 81%—occurred at other U.S. ports like Seattle.

Efforts to restructure trade have hit a snag. A trade agreement announced in November 2025 committed China to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. However, this has not translated into increased volumes at the Port of LA, where soybeans are the top agricultural export commodity. "We're not seeing the bounce-back we hoped for," said a port official familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Attempts to reach Chinese trade representatives for comment were unsuccessful.

China imported more U.S. soybeans than all other international customers combined before tariffs began in 2018, but has increasingly sourced from Latin America, particularly Brazil. In 2025, former President Trump threatened a 157% tax on Chinese imports, prompting China to cut U.S. soybean buying to near zero for six months. From January through August 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled only 218 million bushels—29% of total exports—compared to 985 million bushels (51% of total exports) in 2024.

Structural shifts are locking in new trade flows. China is investing billions in Latin American port infrastructure, including $3.5 billion for Peru's Port of Chancay and approximately $285 million at Brazil's Port of Santos. These investments, expected to make trade faster and cheaper, create long-term advantages that could sideline U.S. farmers for decades. Henry Ziemer of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that such infrastructure "locks in" trade patterns. Meanwhile, logistics costs in Brazil account for 20% to 25% of the final soybean price, incentivizing China's diversification.

The economic impact is tangible. Each four containers handled at the Port of LA generates one job, meaning reduced traffic translates to employment loss. Seroka expressed daily concern that ongoing trade policies could further reduce cargo volumes. Without a sustained recovery, the port's role in global agriculture trade may diminish. Industry analysts suggest that while the November agreement provides a framework, actual shipments depend on market dynamics and China's strategic priorities. The outlook remains cautious, with port traffic not poised for quick recovery amid these structural changes.