• China commits to purchasing 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans through 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually from 2026-2028
  • The agreement follows a six-month suspension in U.S. soybean exports to China that severely impacted American farmers
  • Market response has been cautiously optimistic, with soybean futures reaching $11 per bushel but cash prices remaining below break-even for many producers

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told CNBC on Tuesday that the formal signing of a major soybean trade agreement with China is expected "this week or next," finalizing a deal that represents a significant thaw in trade relations between the world's two largest economies.

The agreement, which follows a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October, commits China to purchasing 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. China will also resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and hardwood and softwood logs as part of the broader trade understanding.

China has already begun fulfilling its commitments, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture announcing the sale of 792,000 metric tons of soybeans to China this week alone. Earlier November purchases totaled 332,000 tons, bringing the month's total to more than 1 million metric tons—China's largest soybean purchases from the United States in two years.

COFCO, China's largest state-owned agriculture and food business, has resumed orders after not purchasing from the U.S. since May 2025, when trade tensions escalated and resulted in near-zero U.S. soybean exports to China for six consecutive months.

The market response has provided temporary support to soybean futures, which reached almost $11 per bushel—the highest level in over a year. However, when adjusted for basis, the resulting cash price remains below the break-even point for many U.S. soybean producers in 2025, according to industry analysts.

If China fulfills the 12-million-ton commitment by year-end, U.S. soybean exports to China in 2025 will total approximately 18 million metric tons, representing a 33% decline from 2024's 26.8 million metric tons. The volumes projected under the new agreement remain below the decade-long average, reflecting the lasting impact of the trade disruption.

Despite the announced commitments, farmers remain uncertain about fulfillment. "We want to trust what we've heard," one Iowa soybean grower told reporters, reflecting lingering concerns about the reliability of China's purchases. Market analysts have also raised questions about China's commitment, noting that Chinese soybean processors lack financial incentive to buy U.S. supply given more affordable options available from South American producers.

StoneX's chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman noted that without government intervention or subsidies, Chinese crushers would naturally prefer Brazilian soybeans due to price advantages. "The economics don't support sustained purchases at these levels without some form of government direction," Suderman said.

The Agriculture Department declined to provide additional details about the timing of the formal signing, referring questions to the White House. Attempts to reach COFCO representatives for comment were unsuccessful.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeline for China's soybean purchase commitments. The 25 million metric ton annual purchases begin in 2026, not 2025.